NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	5.1 [802]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +26.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	83		Comeback	1.3 [536]		LVP	Hakim Warrick (MEM): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.26	0.09	0.08	13	93%	0.29	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	11	57%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.02	0.04	5	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	11	73%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Robert Horry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	3	73%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	7	62%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	21	50%	0.06	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	14	29%	-0.14	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.4	33.7	23.7	29.0	3.5	39.6	160.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +58.0%

MEM -3.6%

MEM -17.7%

SAS +9.9%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.5	18.5	15.6	106.9	100.0	104.4
season	16.3	17.1		106.0	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.0	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	16.3	13.2	16.8	15.5
MEM	18.4	17.2	20.9	17.5	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	38	38	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-7	24	14.9	16.0	-1.06	18.6	18.4	0.17
Tim Duncan	59	55	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.08	10	0	10	15.6	15.4	0.20	19.6	16.2	3.33
Brent Barry	18	15	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	4	2	13.5	16.0	-2.51	18.5	18.4	0.09
Michael Finley	49	47	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	6	-2	15.6	15.3	0.27	17.8	19.3	-1.50
Tony Parker	66	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	0	10	14.8	17.7	-2.93	18.2	19.2	-1.04
Manu Ginobili	54	54	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.08	13	-3	16	15.6	15.2	0.41	19.5	16.5	3.04
Nazr Mohammed	27	28	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	5	0	16.0	15.3	0.73	17.4	19.0	-1.61
Rasho Nesterovic	27	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	9	-8	14.6	15.9	-1.36	19.9	17.8	2.04
Nick Van Exel	29	29	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	14	-18	17.3	14.6	2.78	19.3	18.0	1.36
Beno Udrih	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	15.3	15.5	-0.17	9.0	18.7	-9.69
Fabricio Oberto	9	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	15	-20	18.2	15.2	3.04	13.1	19.0	-5.90
Bruce Bowen	56	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	15	-20	15.9	14.8	1.07	17.6	20.0	-2.41

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	35	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-7	4	16.5	19.9	-3.46	15.2	15.7	-0.52
Hakim Warrick	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-9	8	17.6	18.7	-1.11	16.7	15.2	1.46
Anthony Roberson	20	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-10	10	18.6	18.4	0.25	16.2	15.3	0.92
Shane Battier	54	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-12	14	17.9	19.5	-1.58	15.0	16.6	-1.65
Lorenzen Wright	43	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	2	-14	20.0	16.8	3.15	16.5	14.4	2.08
Bobby Jackson	66	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-3	-4	18.0	20.4	-2.46	15.3	16.4	-1.08
Eddie Jones	44	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-3	-4	19.2	17.6	1.69	15.5	15.4	0.11
Mike Miller	63	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	18.8	17.4	1.33	15.7	15.0	0.65
Pau Gasol	74	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	3	-16	18.8	15.9	2.88	15.0	19.0	-3.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
CHH 103, NJN 88	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.42,0.51,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.28,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%
PHX 88, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.9%