NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	7.4 [352]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +23.2%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.6 [846]		LVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): -7.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	6	93%	0.16	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.11	-0.08	-0.01	27	60%	0.13	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Delonte West	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.02	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	59%	0.07	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	18	50%	0.07	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Orien Greene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.10	0.01	19	70%	0.34	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	18	59%	0.27	3	-0.09	13	69%	-0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.12	0.02	13	71%	0.26	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Brian Skinner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	17	53%	0.04	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.3	32.6	16.5	26.0	1.8	38.5	143.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +0.5%

SAC +22.8%

SAC +20.3%

SAC +13.5%

BOS -7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAC	NBA	BOS	SAC	NBA
this game	12.3	14.3	15.6	102.8	107.4	104.4
season	14.8	15.3		103.3	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.8	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.4	11.5	13.3	12.2	12.3
SAC	15.3	13.0	15.5	13.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orien Greene	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-2	0	10.5	12.6	-2.09	9.4	15.1	-5.66
Raef LaFrentz	70	71	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.46	13	-17	30	11.5	13.7	-2.14	13.9	14.9	-1.04
Al Jefferson	38	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	3	-10	13.4	11.7	1.69	14.9	13.9	0.92
Mark Blount	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-5	6	12.9	11.0	1.86	15.0	12.6	2.37
Delonte West	76	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-6	8	12.4	12.1	0.25	14.6	13.5	1.13
Marcus Banks	46	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	2	-8	11.3	13.0	-1.71	13.6	14.7	-1.09
Kendrick Perkins	23	22	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.05	-13	9	-22	13.7	11.9	1.72	14.7	14.1	0.59
Paul Pierce	98	97	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-5	6	12.2	12.9	-0.68	14.5	11.9	2.62
Ricky Davis	101	99	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	5	-14	12.4	10.5	1.94	14.2	14.9	-0.69

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	60	62	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-1	6	12.9	15.9	-2.98	11.9	12.9	-1.02
Kevin Martin	103	104	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-1	6	14.4	12.2	2.16	12.3	11.6	0.73
Mike Bibby	98	97	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.42	1	3	-2	14.3	13.6	0.73	12.5	10.9	1.55
Corliss Williamson	41	40	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-9	22	13.4	14.8	-1.40	13.9	11.4	2.54
Kenny Thomas	92	92	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.43	-2	6	-8	14.5	12.7	1.85	12.2	12.6	-0.42
Brad Miller	79	81	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	5	-6	14.7	13.1	1.53	11.5	14.5	-2.92
Francisco Garcia	51	53	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.01	1	3	-2	15.7	13.0	2.67	12.9	11.7	1.19
Brian Skinner	16	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	6	-8	12.3	14.6	-2.29	10.9	12.5	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.97,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.84,0.98,1	93.5%
UTA 101, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.77,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.3%
SEA 92, LAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.77,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.84,0.89,0.84,0.96,1,1	93.0%