NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	111		Excitement	7.8 [298]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +63.9%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	17.0 [45]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -10.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.64	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.64	0.18	0.45	-0.01	18	76%	0.75	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.37	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.37	0.16	0.22	0.01	26	56%	0.37	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	12	60%	0.05	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	8	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.07	0.00	7	79%	0.22	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.02	9	78%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	8	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.05	-0.01	14	71%	0.13	5	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	9	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	8	41%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	17	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	28.8	16.8	27.1	2.4	29.4	132.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +44.3%

GSW +3.0%

GSW +12.5%

DAL -12.0%

GSW +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	15.6	120.7	119.8	104.4
season	14.8	16.4		102.9	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.9	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.1	15.0	12.4	20.3	15.8
DAL	13.9	15.7	18.3	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	80	78	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.49	9	-7	16	15.4	18.0	-2.57	15.4	17.8	-2.40
Jason Richardson	77	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-8	18	15.6	16.3	-0.68	15.3	17.9	-2.58
Derek Fisher	57	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-6	14	16.3	14.8	1.50	16.2	14.9	1.22
Troy Murphy	78	78	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	16.1	13.6	2.50	15.2	18.8	-3.65
Adonal Foyle	36	34	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-8	18	14.4	16.7	-2.30	17.6	14.6	3.04
Mike Dunleavy	42	43	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	7	-12	16.1	15.5	0.62	15.7	15.7	-0.08
Zarko Cabarkapa	8	8	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	7	-12	14.7	15.9	-1.11	20.2	15.3	4.97
Andris Biedrins	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	6	-10	14.1	15.9	-1.83	13.2	16.0	-2.77
Calbert Cheaney	26	24	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.09	-13	15	-28	14.5	16.3	-1.76	16.7	15.4	1.35
Ike Diogu	47	47	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.13	-6	8	-14	17.1	14.3	2.84	15.1	16.3	-1.17

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	40	41	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.10	12	-14	26	16.2	15.3	0.87	15.3	16.1	-0.76
Keith Van Horn	27	28	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.03	7	-9	16	16.1	15.6	0.51	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Adrian Griffin	20	21	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.09	8	-10	18	17.0	15.3	1.71	15.4	15.9	-0.43
DeSagana Diop	29	29	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.09	6	-8	14	17.9	14.7	3.15	13.4	16.9	-3.48
Darrell Armstrong	5	5	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-5	8	16.0	15.7	0.30	15.2	15.8	-0.59
Devin Harris	48	48	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-6	10	16.4	15.0	1.40	13.8	17.9	-4.12
Erick Dampier	59	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	6	-14	14.6	17.7	-3.04	16.5	14.4	2.08
Marquis Daniels	63	63	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.37	-7	5	-12	14.9	17.5	-2.53	16.3	14.5	1.82
Jason Terry	38	39	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.42	-9	7	-16	14.8	16.3	-1.50	18.3	13.9	4.33
Dirk Nowitzki	67	67	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.42	-9	7	-16	15.6	16.1	-0.50	16.4	14.1	2.25
Josh Howard	59	59	-1.00	0.50	-1.49	-0.50	-17	15	-32	15.8	15.6	0.14	15.6	16.1	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 108, NJN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.76,0.92,0	91.5%
IND 81, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.69,0.72,0	90.2%
IND 106, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.67,0.84,0	90.1%