NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	112		Excitement	8.2 [243]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +30.1%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	3.3 [229]		LVP	Reggie Evans (SEA): -15.5%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.30	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.18	0.13	0.00	25	70%	0.41	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.13	0.01	17	69%	0.31	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Ronald Murray	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.02	14	51%	0.19	5	-0.14	7	71%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	10	55%	0.11	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Mateen Cleaves	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	6	30%	-0.05	3	-0.10	8	75%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	10	71%	0.19	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	17	61%	0.19	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	4	36%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	55%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	9	35%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	26	55%	0.03	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.12,-0.01,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	9	36%	0.05	4	-0.18	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.7	33.8	18.8	29.3	1.0	39.2	150.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +42.7%

SEA +9.1%

SEA +5.2%

DEN -11.6%

SEA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	13.0	15.6	113.1	104.0	104.4
season	15.0	14.4		108.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.8		103.5	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	19.1	14.9	14.8	14.9	15.8
DEN	13.6	12.3	13.5	12.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	0	7	14.6	18.6	-3.99	13.0	13.1	-0.15
Rashard Lewis	85	85	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	16.7	10.1	6.59	12.8	14.2	-1.38
Damien Wilkins	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-3	13	16.6	13.3	3.30	12.3	15.2	-2.91
Ray Allen	90	92	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.19	11	-4	15	15.9	14.9	1.00	13.3	10.6	2.72
Reggie Evans	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	2	3	17.7	11.9	5.75	12.1	14.9	-2.75
Nick Collison	36	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	10	-13	13.2	17.3	-4.13	14.6	12.1	2.53
Vitaly Potapenko	28	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.14	4	3	1	18.6	14.7	3.97	14.1	12.6	1.44
Mateen Cleaves	11	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	11	-15	9.5	16.6	-7.14	13.3	13.0	0.34
Vladimir Radmanovic	32	35	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	11	-15	12.6	17.3	-4.78	13.7	12.7	0.96

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	12	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-9	11	14.7	12.8	1.95	11.3	16.4	-5.09
Francisco Elson	55	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-3	-1	13.8	12.1	1.65	16.5	15.0	1.46
Earl Watson	40	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-4	1	13.4	12.8	0.70	13.6	17.2	-3.56
Eduardo Najera	45	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	0	-7	13.5	12.6	0.91	13.3	17.6	-4.28
Kenyon Martin	58	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-4	1	12.6	13.7	-1.12	17.8	12.9	4.86
Carmelo Anthony	82	82	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	12.6	15.0	-2.43	16.2	13.8	2.38
Greg Buckner	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	12.9	13.3	-0.36	16.9	13.5	3.35
Earl Boykins	69	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-8	9	12.6	14.0	-1.37	14.4	18.6	-4.18
Andre Miller	76	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	13.1	13.0	0.09	16.7	12.9	3.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.59,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.04,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 115, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.27,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.6%
LAL 99, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.07,0.05,0.01,0	92.2%
SAS 90, SEA 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.01,0,0	92.1%