NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	86		Excitement	5.3 [769]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +12.4%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.8 [856]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): -10.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	70%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.06	3	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	20	54%	0.10	4	-0.12	8	75%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	12	54%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	30%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	0.05	18	49%	-0.05	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	15	68%	0.22	4	-0.09	8	50%	-0.05
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.03	0.05	16	60%	0.12	2	-0.05	13	85%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.06
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	0.07	5	44%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	31.3	16.4	25.9	1.8	36.2	140.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.0%

IND -4.1%

SAS +5.4%

SAS +12.8%

SAS +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SAS	NBA	IND	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	15.8	15.6	94.5	107.6	104.4
season	16.0	16.3		102.3	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.1	14.9	17.4	16.3	15.7
SAS	15.3	16.4	14.5	17.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sarunas Jasikevicius	25	25	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-15	17	14.9	16.0	-1.07	16.3	15.6	0.69
Jeff Foster	38	39	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-17	21	15.3	15.9	-0.59	17.3	14.7	2.55
Danny Granger	25	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-8	3	16.0	15.5	0.47	13.7	16.6	-2.93
Anthony Johnson	24	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-4	-5	16.0	15.5	0.52	14.0	16.5	-2.46
Jamaal Tinsley	68	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-8	3	15.4	16.4	-0.98	16.6	13.3	3.28
Stephen Jackson	81	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-9	5	15.8	14.7	1.08	16.0	14.2	1.80
Jermaine O'Neal	72	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-3	-7	15.6	15.8	-0.16	16.5	13.0	3.45
Austin Croshere	20	22	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	14.5	16.0	-1.49	14.6	16.2	-1.61
Scot Pollard	36	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	0	-13	16.4	15.1	1.30	14.2	16.7	-2.59
Fred Jones	66	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.14	-15	2	-17	16.0	14.9	1.07	15.6	16.3	-0.69

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	39	39	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.12	10	3	7	15.0	16.4	-1.46	17.6	14.2	3.38
Nazr Mohammed	28	26	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	3	7	16.5	15.5	1.04	15.4	15.8	-0.33
Bruce Bowen	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	5	3	15.9	15.7	0.16	14.9	18.0	-3.07
Michael Finley	63	63	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	5	3	16.9	13.5	3.36	15.5	16.1	-0.65
Tim Duncan	72	74	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	6	1	15.8	15.7	0.08	15.8	15.2	0.59
Nick Van Exel	24	24	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	10	-7	16.2	15.7	0.59	18.0	14.8	3.12
Tony Parker	66	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.03	9	4	5	15.5	16.7	-1.17	14.9	17.6	-2.62
Manu Ginobili	29	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	8	-3	13.5	16.9	-3.36	16.1	15.5	0.65
Brent Barry	26	25	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	9	-5	15.8	15.8	-0.06	17.1	15.1	1.96
Beno Udrih	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	12	-11	21.5	15.7	5.81	8.0	15.7	-7.74
Fabricio Oberto	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	14	-15	16.3	15.8	0.54	7.0	15.9	-8.85
Rasho Nesterovic	39	39	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	12	-11	16.0	15.7	0.37	14.6	16.5	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, DAL 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.41,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
CHA 75, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
POR 90, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%