NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	75		Excitement	6.4 [594]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +16.5%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	2.2 [679]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -25.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	92%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.02	-0.03	20	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	11	44%	0.06	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Frank Kaminsky	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.04
Malik Monk	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Bacon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	6	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	16	31%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	7	14%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.06	0.05	11	83%	0.19	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	10	60%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	10	67%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.03	14	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.01	7	24%	-0.10	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.07	-0.02	17	18%	-0.21	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	28.6	15.4	26.4	2.4	33.3	131.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.2%

CHA -7.6%

MIA +12.7%

MIA +5.5%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	15.3	14.3	82.4	100.0	109.3
season	14.6	14.8		110.4	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	16.4	15.4	15.9	16.3	16.0
MIA	17.1	13.4	15.4	15.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Monk	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.19	-7	-11	4	14.5	16.1	-1.57	19.0	15.1	3.91
Miles Bridges	19	19	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-16	14	14.0	16.5	-2.49	18.1	14.6	3.40
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	23	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-21	24	16.1	15.9	0.22	14.4	15.7	-1.24
Frank Kaminsky	60	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	-10	2	15.8	16.3	-0.49	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Tony Parker	32	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-15	12	16.2	15.8	0.39	14.9	15.6	-0.68
Marvin Williams	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-13	8	16.0	15.9	0.12	15.9	14.6	1.22
Kemba Walker	69	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.14	-13	-5	-8	15.7	16.9	-1.18	15.5	14.9	0.63
Dwayne Bacon	33	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-9	0	17.0	15.4	1.67	14.5	15.8	-1.29
Bismack Biyombo	31	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.03	-12	-6	-6	16.3	15.8	0.49	15.5	15.3	0.20
Nicolas Batum	67	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	0	-18	15.5	17.3	-1.86	15.5	15.0	0.46
Jeremy Lamb	62	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	-16	-2	-14	16.8	14.3	2.48	14.5	17.3	-2.78

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	54	54	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.02	19	-1	20	14.9	15.9	-0.95	16.2	15.7	0.49
James Johnson	34	33	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	4	10	14.8	15.7	-0.91	15.7	16.1	-0.47
Josh Richardson	74	73	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.16	18	0	18	15.7	14.1	1.56	15.5	17.7	-2.19
Bam Adebayo	60	58	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.21	18	0	18	15.7	14.7	0.96	16.0	15.9	0.09
Derrick Jones Jr.	46	46	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	7	4	15.7	15.0	0.61	16.0	15.9	0.07
Goran Dragic	54	52	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	11	-4	14.8	16.1	-1.35	16.0	15.9	0.08
Hassan Whiteside	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	18	-18	14.7	15.7	-0.96	15.9	16.0	-0.09
Kelly Olynyk	59	58	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	14	-10	15.7	14.8	0.91	16.1	15.7	0.47
Dion Waiters	44	42	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	15	-12	15.9	14.8	1.12	16.3	15.7	0.55
Rodney McGruder	7	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	22	-26	13.7	15.5	-1.76	16.8	15.9	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, NOP 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
IND 86, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
MEM 86, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%