NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	90		Excitement	5.5 [741]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +16.6%
Denver Nuggets	109		Comeback	1.6 [980]		LVP	Andre Miller (POR): -21.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.01	0.02	8	90%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	55%	0.11	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	12	65%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Chris Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Patty Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.02	14	32%	-0.07	5	-0.14	6	83%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.06	0.05	12	83%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	69%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	9	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	0.01	0.07	13	71%	0.11	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	15	56%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	9	39%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	4	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	34.2	15.7	23.3	2.4	30.2	131.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.0%

DEN +2.3%

DEN +15.6%

DEN +10.0%

POR -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.5	96.8	116.0	105.7
season	16.5	14.3		106.7	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.7	14.9	17.7	16.6	16.4
DEN	14.6	13.4	16.6	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	15.8	16.5	-0.65	15.4	14.3	1.06
Luke Babbitt	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	15.8	16.5	-0.65	15.4	14.3	1.06
Joel Przybilla	25	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-17	15	17.6	16.0	1.56	15.7	13.9	1.80
Wesley Matthews	56	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	-10	1	16.2	16.7	-0.52	14.2	14.7	-0.51
Chris Johnson	24	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-12	5	15.7	16.7	-1.01	12.4	15.2	-2.84
Patty Mills	26	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-13	7	15.3	16.9	-1.60	12.8	15.0	-2.17
Andre Miller	67	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-6	-7	16.9	15.3	1.60	15.0	12.8	2.17
Nicolas Batum	77	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	-6	-7	16.2	17.7	-1.53	14.7	12.6	2.13
Dante Cunningham	52	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.07	-16	-3	-13	16.6	16.2	0.44	13.8	15.1	-1.33
Rudy Fernandez	49	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	-8	-3	16.5	16.3	0.24	14.2	14.6	-0.41
LaMarcus Aldridge	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	-3	-13	16.6	15.6	1.00	14.9	12.1	2.73

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	56	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.05	20	-1	21	13.4	15.8	-2.39	15.6	17.6	-2.04
Al Harrington	43	45	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	7	5	13.0	15.6	-2.57	15.6	17.1	-1.50
Kenyon Martin	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	12	-5	15.2	13.4	1.83	17.6	14.9	2.67
Ty Lawson	34	35	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	17	-15	13.1	15.1	-1.95	15.2	17.2	-1.96
Arron Afflalo	74	71	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.07	11	8	3	14.9	12.7	2.15	16.2	17.1	-0.88
Chauncey Billups	59	57	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.31	19	0	19	15.4	12.8	2.58	17.2	15.2	1.95
Carmelo Anthony	69	68	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.26	17	2	15	14.6	13.7	0.92	17.1	14.6	2.54
Chris Andersen	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	16	-13	11.7	14.9	-3.19	15.2	16.7	-1.45
Nene	63	61	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.18	8	11	-3	14.9	13.4	1.45	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Shelden Williams	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	19.0	14.3	4.71	18.0	16.4	1.62
Gary Forbes	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	19.0	14.3	4.71	18.0	16.4	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.66,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 101, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
GSW 96, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.7%
MIA 83, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.85,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.1%