NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	6.2 [597]		MVP	Monta Ellis (IND): +26.5%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	2.1 [723]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -17.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	10	65%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	89%	0.10	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	19	50%	0.10	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	23	43%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.11	-0.04	18	67%	0.29	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.07	0.03	9	82%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	17	55%	0.14	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	18	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	9	30%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.8	32.5	16.8	24.0	3.0	29.3	133.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +10.1%

IND +14.3%

IND +0.4%

IND +23.6%

IND +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	14.1	14.9	83.0	97.0	105.1
season	15.5	14.6		104.5	103.2
opponent	14.9	15.1		101.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	12.7	16.7	14.3	14.9
IND	12.8	14.0	12.6	17.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	18	19	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-16	19	14.4	15.0	-0.60	14.4	14.0	0.45
Amar'e Stoudemire	16	15	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-12	11	14.7	14.9	-0.23	12.8	14.3	-1.49
Beno Udrih	31	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-12	11	13.1	15.7	-2.58	14.3	14.0	0.33
Chris Bosh	76	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-10	7	14.7	15.5	-0.76	14.2	13.6	0.59
Gerald Green	57	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-10	7	13.9	16.2	-2.33	15.4	12.3	3.11
Justise Winslow	62	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-10	7	14.3	15.8	-1.42	13.6	14.7	-1.10
Dwyane Wade	72	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-1	-11	15.1	14.4	0.73	13.7	15.0	-1.28
Goran Dragic	63	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-3	-7	15.7	13.6	2.08	14.2	13.7	0.49
Hassan Whiteside	36	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-1	-11	16.3	14.1	2.27	12.5	14.9	-2.41
Luol Deng	69	68	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	0.01	-23	10	-33	15.7	13.1	2.63	14.3	13.6	0.70

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	72	74	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.04	23	-10	33	13.5	15.4	-1.90	15.7	12.6	3.11
Paul George	73	75	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.02	23	-10	33	14.3	13.5	0.81	15.6	12.8	2.72
Ian Mahinmi	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-4	21	14.2	13.6	0.66	15.1	14.2	0.95
CJ Miles	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	4	5	14.8	12.4	2.38	14.7	15.4	-0.70
Rodney Stuckey	56	58	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	9	-5	15.7	11.9	3.85	14.1	16.0	-1.89
George Hill	70	68	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	14	-15	13.3	16.0	-2.74	14.7	15.3	-0.64
Lavoy Allen	26	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	12	-11	12.1	14.8	-2.64	16.0	14.5	1.44
Jordan Hill	26	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	17	-21	13.6	14.2	-0.66	14.2	15.1	-0.95
Chase Budinger	30	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	20	-27	13.6	14.3	-0.71	12.8	15.8	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.85,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.98,1,1	94.7%
MIL 90, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.5%
BKN 86, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%