NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	90		Excitement	6.2 [588]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +20.1%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	1.4 [1028]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -14.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.12	0.08	0.02	9	83%	0.24	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.03	-0.00	6	87%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Rafael Araujo	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	14	44%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Joey Graham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	11	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Charlie Villanueva	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	3	-0.09	6	33%	-0.06
Chris Bosh	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14	-0.00	-0.08	0.06	13	60%	-0.03	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.12	0.01	16	67%	0.30	3	-0.10	8	37%	-0.07
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	64%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.01	3	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Beno Udrih	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	52%	0.06	5	-0.11	5	20%	-0.07
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	12	35%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	28.2	17.6	27.6	2.0	36.1	138.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.1%

TOR -11.6%

SAS +14.0%

SAS +8.0%

TOR -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.9	15.6	97.8	103.3	104.4
season	15.6	16.3		107.3	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.4		99.4	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.4	15.0	17.1	14.3	15.4
SAS	14.6	16.3	18.1	15.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	42	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-7	9	15.0	15.8	-0.78	15.8	16.0	-0.26
Rafael Araujo	22	23	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	-0.12	0	-5	5	16.2	15.2	1.02	17.2	15.5	1.75
Aaron Williams	17	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	3	-11	17.7	14.9	2.83	14.1	16.3	-2.19
Matt Bonner	53	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-8	11	14.3	16.8	-2.51	15.9	16.0	-0.12
Charlie Villanueva	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	3	-11	16.3	15.0	1.33	14.2	16.6	-2.38
Morris Peterson	78	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-8	11	15.2	16.5	-1.29	15.7	16.9	-1.23
Jalen Rose	51	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-8	11	14.3	16.7	-2.40	15.7	16.1	-0.35
Joey Graham	37	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	6	-17	16.9	14.4	2.45	16.4	15.5	0.88
Chris Bosh	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.43	0	-5	5	15.3	15.6	-0.34	16.9	14.1	2.87
Mike James	73	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.35	-9	4	-13	15.6	14.6	0.97	15.8	16.2	-0.33

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	66	64	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.27	12	-7	19	16.8	13.7	3.08	16.3	13.4	2.84
Bruce Bowen	82	80	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.32	7	-2	9	15.9	15.7	0.23	15.5	14.6	0.94
Tim Duncan	73	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.50	-1	6	-7	16.4	14.0	2.40	15.0	16.8	-1.75
Brent Barry	55	55	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-2	9	15.6	16.4	-0.75	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Tony Parker	64	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	2	1	16.3	15.1	1.19	15.5	15.1	0.41
Nick Van Exel	28	31	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	3	-1	15.1	16.3	-1.19	15.1	15.5	-0.41
Robert Horry	33	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	0	5	15.6	16.1	-0.41	16.6	14.7	1.89
Beno Udrih	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	5	-5	1.0	16.2	-15.23	5.0	15.6	-10.63
Michael Finley	57	59	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.15	-10	15	-25	15.2	17.1	-1.86	14.8	16.5	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 84, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1	94.4%
SEA 86, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.76,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.81,0.7,0.84,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.95,1	94.3%
DEN 90, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.0%