NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	6.2 [543]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (MIN): +15.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	1.4 [1011]		LVP	Felipe Lopez (MIN): -10.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	14	41%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	-0.05	13	53%	0.04	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	5	50%	-0.06	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	17	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	9	33%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.06	0.13	-0.09	8	46%	0.19	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.16
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	9	70%	0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.08	-0.03	15	50%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.04	22	60%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	14	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	29.1	14.8	25.2	2.3	36.4	131.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +26.2%

MIN +5.0%

MIN +10.1%

MIN +6.2%

MIN +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	98.9	109.8	100.9
season	15.2	15.0		101.4	102.9
opponent	15.9	15.2		101.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	18.1	15.0	15.1	16.0
MIN	13.8	17.9	15.7	14.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	13	14	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.04	5	-16	21	17.2	15.8	1.35	21.2	14.4	6.77
Kevin Willis	35	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-10	9	17.6	15.0	2.65	15.6	15.4	0.27
Nick Van Exel	53	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-6	1	16.2	15.7	0.54	14.4	16.9	-2.46
Robert Pack	35	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-7	3	16.1	15.9	0.14	16.5	14.8	1.67
Voshon Lenard	64	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-2	-7	15.3	17.7	-2.48	14.9	16.9	-1.96
Antonio McDyess	70	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-6	1	14.8	19.9	-5.01	16.1	13.0	3.12
George McCloud	58	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	16.6	14.9	1.76	15.7	15.0	0.71
Raef LaFrentz	69	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.20	-14	3	-17	17.0	12.9	4.08	14.7	17.7	-2.96
James Posey	58	59	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	1	-13	14.9	17.9	-3.04	14.8	16.7	-1.90

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	85	85	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	0	11	15.0	21.7	-6.75	15.8	19.2	-3.39
Wally Szczerbiak	70	69	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	2	7	15.0	17.1	-2.12	15.7	17.1	-1.44
Sam Mitchell	48	47	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	1	9	15.8	15.2	0.61	16.0	16.0	-0.09
Terrell Brandon	69	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-3	17	14.8	17.7	-2.90	15.8	16.7	-0.87
Chauncey Billups	50	47	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	16.5	14.3	2.15	16.7	15.2	1.50
LaPhonso Ellis	48	48	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	7	-3	15.5	15.4	0.13	17.5	14.4	3.09
Reggie Slater	39	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	8	-5	15.8	15.2	0.59	14.8	16.9	-2.06
Dean Garrett	7	6	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	11	-11	21.7	15.0	6.75	19.2	15.8	3.39
Anthony Peeler	14	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	12	-13	14.9	15.6	-0.65	13.1	16.5	-3.46
Felipe Lopez	30	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	16	-21	15.9	15.3	0.68	16.8	15.6	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
TOR 90, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	94.0%
DET 83, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%