NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	6.1 [570]		MVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): +15.9%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	1.3 [860]		LVP	Sam Cassell (DAL): -22.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	10	76%	0.12	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
A.C. Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	19	52%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Derek Harper	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Oliver Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	60%	0.04	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	17	44%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Eric Montross	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.14	-0.08	0.00	7	29%	-0.09	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.23	0.00	0.07	27	73%	0.24	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	13	68%	0.16	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.03	-0.02	10	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	2	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Ray Owes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Felton Spencer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	3	10%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.3	27.5	14.7	27.2	0.8	32.3	127.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +17.2%

DAL -2.6%

DAL -9.5%

GSW +41.2%

GSW +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	15.6	98.9	112.9	104.4
season	15.9	15.0		99.1	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		109.1	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.0	15.3	16.8	15.7	14.8
GSW	15.7	16.0	16.7	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Harper	55	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-10	8	15.9	13.3	2.58	16.3	15.5	0.73
Eric Montross	48	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-8	4	14.8	14.9	-0.14	15.8	16.1	-0.32
A.C. Green	48	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-7	2	15.7	13.9	1.77	15.4	16.5	-1.10
Jim Jackson	73	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-7	2	15.0	14.3	0.71	15.3	18.3	-3.06
Jamal Mashburn	79	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-7	2	14.3	17.8	-3.52	16.2	14.8	1.39
Chris Gatling	58	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-2	-8	14.6	15.3	-0.75	16.2	15.6	0.58
Oliver Miller	26	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-6	0	14.8	14.9	-0.10	16.6	15.7	0.93
Sam Cassell	39	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	13.3	15.9	-2.58	15.5	16.3	-0.73
Michael Finley	44	43	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	1	-14	15.1	14.6	0.56	16.8	15.3	1.53

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	62	63	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	2	8	16.3	15.4	0.87	15.2	14.1	1.16
Latrell Sprewell	89	89	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	1	10	15.7	21.7	-6.04	14.9	14.4	0.47
Chris Mullin	73	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	3	6	15.7	17.1	-1.44	15.1	13.7	1.39
Bimbo Coles	52	53	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	3	6	15.9	16.1	-0.23	15.1	14.6	0.50
Felton Spencer	45	44	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.12	5	7	-2	16.1	15.8	0.28	15.3	14.4	0.94
Todd Fuller	42	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	7	-2	16.5	15.6	0.88	14.5	15.2	-0.68
Donald Royal	35	37	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	6	0	16.6	15.6	0.97	13.6	15.6	-2.05
B.J. Armstrong	41	41	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	9	-6	16.1	15.9	0.23	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Donyell Marshall	30	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	9	-6	16.1	15.9	0.15	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Ray Owes	6	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	13	-14	8.8	16.5	-7.63	17.6	14.7	2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 97, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,0.98,1	94.6%
DEN 90, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.3%
CLE 98, LAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.96,0.97,1	93.8%