NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	4.2 [999]		MVP	Matt Bonner (TOR): +10.3%
Houston Rockets	81		Comeback	1.0 [660]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -12.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	5	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joey Graham	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	3	125%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	16	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	57%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	61%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	15	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.03	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.03	0.04	14	64%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	0.08	17	57%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.02	-0.04	11	25%	-0.09	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	30.2	16.5	29.4	2.4	25.3	131.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +39.2%

TOR +4.6%

HOU -11.5%

TOR +11.3%

TOR +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	16.7	16.4	15.6	108.0	93.1	104.4
season	15.6	16.1		107.3	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.4		101.4	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.5	15.0	16.5	18.9	16.7
HOU	17.0	17.0	15.6	16.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	56	55	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	0	13	17.0	16.1	0.87	16.2	16.7	-0.48
Mike James	68	67	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	6	1	17.0	15.7	1.29	16.6	15.9	0.60
Morris Peterson	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	4	5	17.0	14.1	2.93	16.3	17.4	-1.11
Joey Graham	34	35	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	4	5	16.5	16.8	-0.36	16.4	16.4	-0.07
Chris Bosh	69	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	3	7	16.7	16.7	0.03	16.0	17.9	-1.93
Charlie Villanueva	25	25	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	4	5	16.4	16.8	-0.46	15.1	16.9	-1.82
Rafael Araujo	23	23	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	9	-5	16.0	17.0	-1.00	17.4	16.1	1.33
Aaron Williams	7	7	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	9	-5	13.0	17.0	-4.01	22.6	15.9	6.70
Jalen Rose	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	12	-11	15.3	17.7	-2.40	16.3	16.5	-0.12
Matt Bonner	41	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	14	-15	17.8	15.7	2.11	16.6	16.2	0.40

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moochie Norris	26	27	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-14	15	17.5	16.0	1.49	15.6	17.2	-1.54
Stephen Graham	10	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-14	15	15.1	16.6	-1.48	20.6	16.2	4.31
Lonny Baxter	25	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-9	5	17.9	15.8	2.06	14.6	17.6	-3.01
Luther Head	67	68	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-11	9	15.6	19.3	-3.75	17.0	15.4	1.62
Stromile Swift	27	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.11	-13	0	-13	18.0	15.7	2.25	15.8	17.1	-1.26
Tracy McGrady	81	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-6	-1	16.1	20.0	-3.85	17.0	12.2	4.86
David Wesley	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	-4	-5	16.0	19.8	-3.83	17.2	12.9	4.28
Juwan Howard	78	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-2	-9	16.0	19.9	-3.88	16.9	14.9	2.01
Ryan Bowen	44	43	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.04	-21	8	-29	17.6	15.2	2.38	15.9	17.5	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	95.8%
TOR 100, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
MIN 97, CLE 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%