NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	4.7 [866]		MVP	Charles Smith (SAS): +5.2%
Golden State Warriors	82		Comeback	1.1 [1031]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -20.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Smith	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	16	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Malik Rose	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Amal McCaskill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.02	9	67%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	18	48%	0.04	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Steven Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	13	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	5	43%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	8	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	42%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	21	40%	-0.05	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.03	16	35%	-0.08	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.19	-0.03	-0.01	9	23%	-0.11	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	24.0	16.5	24.4	1.8	31.2	121.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +50.5%

SAS +2.4%

GSW -20.9%

SAS +12.2%

SAS +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	14.3	15.6	92.8	82.8	102.3
season	15.8	14.7		104.3	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.2	15.5	15.0	17.9	15.1
GSW	15.5	14.5	14.4	12.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	86	88	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-4	16	14.7	18.0	-3.28	14.4	13.5	0.95
Charles Smith	69	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-7	22	14.6	16.3	-1.73	14.2	14.4	-0.19
Tony Parker	66	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	8	-8	14.5	16.5	-2.00	13.9	15.2	-1.35
Malik Rose	38	39	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	3	2	15.3	15.0	0.28	16.4	12.9	3.52
David Robinson	56	57	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	2	4	15.3	14.9	0.41	13.9	14.9	-1.00
Terry Porter	31	32	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	0	8	16.5	14.5	2.00	15.2	13.9	1.35
Steven Smith	52	54	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	5	-2	15.1	15.1	-0.03	13.6	15.1	-1.52
Amal McCaskill	10	11	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	3	2	11.1	15.6	-4.45	21.7	13.4	8.35
Antonio Daniels	48	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	12	-16	17.2	13.1	4.11	13.9	14.7	-0.86
Cherokee Parks	9	9	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	7	-6	12.8	15.3	-2.55	13.0	14.4	-1.43
Mark Bryant	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	15	-22	17.4	14.8	2.65	10.0	14.9	-4.90
Stephen Jackson	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	12	-16	13.1	15.3	-2.14	10.9	14.6	-3.71

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Murphy	37	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.20	5	-13	18	13.6	14.7	-1.04	17.1	13.9	3.21
Chris Mills	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-8	8	15.5	13.7	1.77	16.8	14.3	2.57
Adonal Foyle	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	12.6	14.9	-2.33	12.6	16.0	-3.41
Larry Hughes	75	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-7	6	13.2	17.9	-4.71	15.0	15.4	-0.39
Jason Richardson	67	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	14.2	14.6	-0.38	14.1	17.2	-3.04
Bob Sura	50	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	0	-8	16.6	12.0	4.56	16.7	13.5	3.28
Danny Fortson	71	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-4	0	13.5	16.5	-3.01	14.1	17.5	-3.38
Erick Dampier	55	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	6	-20	16.5	11.6	4.88	15.4	14.7	0.71
Antawn Jamison	84	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	13.7	17.5	-3.73	14.8	16.6	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, HOU 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.8%
PHX 101, VAN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.09,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
UTA 110, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.7%