NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	6.3 [550]		MVP	Jannero Pargo (CHI): +26.2%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	2.5 [269]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -18.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.10	-0.01	13	88%	0.32	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Basden	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	125%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	16	58%	0.11	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	0.00	7	45%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Michael Sweetney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	43%	0.01	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.05
Tyson Chandler	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	9	55%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.07	0.02	11	50%	-0.00	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terence Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	5	64%	0.15	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	70%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	12	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	8	37%	-0.07
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.04	-0.05	11	55%	0.12	6	-0.16	7	86%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	11	37%	-0.07	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	0.08	11	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	9	56%	0.03	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	31.4	16.6	28.4	1.7	34.5	138.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +39.5%

ORL -13.6%

ORL -9.8%

CHI +31.6%

CHI +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.6	104.1	93.9	104.4
season	14.4	16.4		102.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	16.1		105.9	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.2	14.4	12.7	15.4	14.2
ORL	14.6	15.0	16.6	13.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	74	76	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.14	19	-10	29	14.0	14.7	-0.69	15.2	14.6	0.63
Andres Nocioni	61	63	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.24	15	-6	21	13.8	14.8	-0.96	15.1	15.0	0.08
Chris Duhon	87	87	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-1	11	14.2	13.9	0.31	15.1	14.3	0.82
Jannero Pargo	53	52	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.22	1	8	-7	14.2	14.2	0.05	14.1	16.1	-1.97
Darius Songaila	68	68	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	8	-7	14.4	13.7	0.70	14.5	16.2	-1.66
Ben Gordon	59	61	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	6	-3	14.2	14.2	-0.08	15.4	14.5	0.94
Eddie Basden	20	20	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	11	-13	14.0	14.2	-0.23	15.6	14.9	0.69
Michael Sweetney	50	51	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.09	-2	11	-13	14.5	13.9	0.56	15.8	14.2	1.63
Tyson Chandler	10	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	9	-9	13.3	14.3	-0.98	16.5	14.9	1.61
Othella Harrington	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	9	-9	16.2	14.0	2.25	11.4	15.3	-3.90

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	24	22	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.13	7	-16	23	15.0	15.1	-0.01	15.5	13.8	1.64
Stacey Augmon	10	8	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-10	11	14.9	15.1	-0.17	13.5	14.2	-0.74
Mario Kasun	12	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	15.9	14.9	0.99	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Steve Francis	75	75	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-7	5	15.1	15.0	0.01	14.8	12.3	2.46
Terence Morris	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-12	15	13.9	15.4	-1.50	14.6	14.1	0.51
Jameer Nelson	58	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-7	5	14.8	15.4	-0.66	14.1	14.3	-0.15
Tony Battie	61	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	2	-13	15.7	14.0	1.66	14.4	13.8	0.60
Dwight Howard	89	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	0	-9	14.9	16.3	-1.39	13.9	16.8	-2.86
DeShawn Stevenson	67	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.23	-13	4	-17	14.9	15.3	-0.43	13.8	15.0	-1.19
Hedo Turkoglu	75	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.13	-18	9	-27	15.3	14.3	0.95	13.8	15.6	-1.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.08,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.3,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.1,0.06,0.02,0,0	92.8%
SEA 98, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.17,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.7%
DET 93, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	92.6%