NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	6.0 [631]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +26.0%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	3.0 [106]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -10.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.15	0.00	18	67%	0.34	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.03
Rodney Stuckey	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	15	63%	0.21	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	8	50%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	14	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Kwame Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Walter Herrmann	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	11	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	12	43%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	56%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.03	0.02	12	60%	0.11	2	-0.10	11	64%	-0.05
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	3.0	28.8	19.5	30.5	3.8	32.0	147.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +20.0%

DET +7.4%

DET +19.1%

ORL -3.2%

DET +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	20.3	14.0	15.5	110.7	101.2	106.4
season	16.9	15.3		104.9	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	20.7	19.1	18.5	23.3	20.3
ORL	13.0	13.6	14.2	15.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	70	71	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.29	15	-7	22	20.0	21.9	-1.94	14.4	11.6	2.79
Richard Hamilton	70	71	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.26	14	-6	20	20.1	21.3	-1.17	14.4	11.5	2.98
Antonio McDyess	72	71	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-1	10	20.4	19.6	0.85	14.2	12.8	1.34
Tayshaun Prince	71	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	3	2	20.8	17.8	2.91	13.7	15.7	-1.97
Jason Maxiell	36	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	-1	10	18.7	21.5	-2.73	13.9	14.0	-0.15
Kwame Brown	7	8	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	5	-2	19.9	20.4	-0.49	12.7	14.1	-1.36
Rasheed Wallace	53	53	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	13	-18	21.3	18.7	2.59	13.9	14.0	-0.09
Arron Afflalo	7	6	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	8	-8	17.6	20.6	-2.99	14.3	13.9	0.38
Walter Herrmann	20	19	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	11	-14	20.3	20.3	0.05	13.2	14.2	-0.99
Will Bynum	14	13	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	15	-22	21.9	20.0	1.94	11.6	14.4	-2.79

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	22	23	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-10	12	14.0	14.0	0.09	20.6	20.2	0.35
Mickael Pietrus	55	53	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-11	14	13.8	14.3	-0.51	19.9	21.0	-1.09
Marcin Gortat	12	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	15.7	13.7	1.97	17.8	20.8	-2.91
Anthony Johnson	30	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-7	6	14.4	13.7	0.66	19.6	20.7	-1.05
Rashard Lewis	67	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	13.6	15.5	-1.87	20.6	19.2	1.42
Rafer Alston	54	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	13.7	14.4	-0.66	20.7	19.6	1.05
Courtney Lee	55	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	1	-10	13.6	14.6	-0.98	20.5	20.0	0.44
Hedo Turkoglu	58	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	2	-12	14.5	12.9	1.58	20.5	19.7	0.79
Dwight Howard	67	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	2	-12	14.0	13.8	0.27	20.4	19.9	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.07,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 93, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.16,0.13,0.24,0.15,0.06,0.16,0	93.1%
CHI 102, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.08,0.01,0,0,0	92.6%
BOS 104, SAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.56,0.52,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.21,0.29,0.16,0.04,0,0.01,0,0	92.6%