NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	84		Excitement	5.6 [716]		MVP	Devin Harris (DAL): +8.2%
Indiana Pacers	75		Comeback	1.1 [620]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (IND): -20.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.02	11	52%	0.13	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.03	0.04	19	66%	0.15	4	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Keith Van Horn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	11	42%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	8	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.04	0.03	7	50%	-0.04	5	-0.12	2	0%	-0.05

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	17	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	14	79%	0.01
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	41%	-0.02	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	15	39%	-0.04	3	-0.08	8	37%	-0.11
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.06	0.00	9	37%	-0.05	6	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.0	31.6	15.8	27.2	2.6	30.0	136.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.3%

IND -2.1%

IND -3.9%

DAL +5.6%

DAL +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	IND	NBA	DAL	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.6	91.3	82.4	104.4
season	16.4	16.0		109.0	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		100.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	15.8	16.3	18.0	16.2
IND	15.7	13.7	16.5	15.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	74	72	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.16	13	-4	17	15.9	17.6	-1.75	14.5	18.0	-3.46
Erick Dampier	69	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	3	3	16.0	16.7	-0.71	15.9	13.5	2.34
Darrell Armstrong	40	39	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	-3	15	17.1	15.5	1.62	16.5	14.3	2.23
Devin Harris	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	4	1	15.9	17.3	-1.40	15.4	14.5	0.98
Adrian Griffin	65	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	2	5	15.4	18.2	-2.85	15.5	14.7	0.75
Marquis Daniels	67	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	5	-1	16.3	15.9	0.45	14.8	16.4	-1.62
Keith Van Horn	54	52	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.21	-4	13	-17	17.0	15.0	2.01	15.3	15.2	0.15
DeSagana Diop	18	19	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	7	-5	17.5	15.9	1.61	13.2	15.8	-2.66

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Harrison	6	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-7	5	18.5	15.0	3.46	13.5	16.4	-2.90
Jeff Foster	43	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-12	15	15.9	14.7	1.26	16.3	16.1	0.12
Anthony Johnson	35	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	16.6	14.4	2.22	15.4	16.7	-1.30
Metta World Peace	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-7	5	15.1	16.1	-0.99	16.0	17.1	-1.06
Sarunas Jasikevicius	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-5	1	14.4	16.6	-2.22	16.7	15.4	1.30
Fred Jones	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-5	1	15.7	14.8	0.87	17.0	15.4	1.59
Danny Granger	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-1	-7	14.4	16.7	-2.31	16.0	16.5	-0.42
Stephen Jackson	63	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	3	-15	15.2	15.5	-0.29	15.9	17.0	-1.09
Jermaine O'Neal	77	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	2	-13	15.3	15.1	0.14	16.5	14.6	1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.12,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, SEA 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.32,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.5%
SAC 88, HOU 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0	94.4%
CHA 105, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.3%