NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	88		Excitement	5.5 [726]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +17.3%
Houston Rockets	80		Comeback	1.0 [630]		LVP	Luther Head (HOU): -14.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.06	-0.02	6	86%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	8	52%	0.09	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.04
Mike Bibby	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	16	45%	0.07	1	-0.00	10	80%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.02	14	56%	0.11	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	6	36%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	2	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	17	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.01
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	53%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	22	44%	-0.04	3	-0.06	11	55%	-0.05
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	13	30%	-0.07	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	30.5	16.4	26.5	2.5	35.5	137.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +40.7%

SAC +17.8%

HOU -24.0%

SAC +11.3%

SAC +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	HOU	NBA	SAC	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	17.4	15.6	98.9	92.0	104.4
season	15.3	16.1		104.7	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.5		101.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.8	13.1	15.2	18.8	15.4
HOU	20.5	16.3	18.3	14.8	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	78	75	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	2	4	15.9	11.6	4.25	18.2	12.4	5.77
Mike Bibby	79	76	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	4	0	15.7	12.6	3.11	18.1	12.6	5.44
Jason Hart	54	54	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	5	-2	15.3	15.4	-0.11	16.1	19.4	-3.28
Peja Stojakovic	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-2	12	14.2	17.2	-3.03	18.1	16.3	1.80
Corliss Williamson	50	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	8	-8	16.0	14.5	1.46	16.7	18.2	-1.59
Francisco Garcia	50	49	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	5	-2	15.9	14.7	1.14	15.7	19.6	-3.84
Kenny Thomas	45	46	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-1	10	14.8	15.9	-1.13	18.0	16.7	1.29
Kevin Martin	35	35	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	3	2	14.4	16.0	-1.58	17.6	17.3	0.30

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-6	4	14.5	18.3	-3.78	12.0	16.3	-4.33
Lonny Baxter	20	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-5	2	16.8	17.6	-0.70	13.3	16.0	-2.66
Moochie Norris	8	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-10	12	16.2	17.5	-1.26	22.6	14.4	8.16
Ryan Bowen	25	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	0	-8	20.1	16.3	3.83	16.1	15.1	1.00
David Wesley	77	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-6	4	17.3	17.9	-0.58	16.0	10.7	5.29
Luther Head	71	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	16.4	21.7	-5.26	14.6	18.7	-4.13
Dikembe Mutombo	59	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	2	-12	18.7	14.7	3.95	15.0	16.1	-1.04
Rafer Alston	73	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-3	-2	17.6	16.5	1.06	15.4	15.1	0.26
Juwan Howard	81	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-3	-2	17.4	17.7	-0.30	15.8	9.0	6.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 72, POR 65	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.8%
CHA 105, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.7%
MEM 80, UTA 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.09,0	94.7%