NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	10.0 [76]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +23.0%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	3.1 [302]		LVP	Keith Van Horn (DAL): -22.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.23	0.08	0.17	0.02	23	57%	0.44	2	-0.21	7	57%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	75%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	7	39%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	12	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.05
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	12	41%	-0.02	2	-0.10	8	62%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	3	0%	-0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.00	15	60%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	58%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.12
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	21	44%	0.00	2	-0.12	12	67%	-0.10
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	10	30%	-0.10	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.21	-0.21	-0.03	-0.20	-0.02	13	41%	-0.21	0	0.00	8	87%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.17	0.02	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.24	8	87%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	30.5	19.8	25.1	2.8	48.2	156.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.1%

SAS +10.0%

SAS +3.4%

SAS +2.5%

DAL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	16.3	15.6	102.2	98.9	104.4
season	16.3	16.4		106.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.9	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	16.4	17.2	13.8	15.5
DAL	16.9	18.6	16.3	13.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	65	66	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-11	24	15.4	15.8	-0.44	16.7	15.2	1.51
Robert Horry	29	31	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-3	8	14.4	16.0	-1.64	16.4	16.2	0.19
Tony Parker	75	76	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.51	1	1	0	15.5	15.4	0.15	16.0	17.8	-1.80
Tim Duncan	74	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	-1	4	15.4	16.2	-0.81	15.8	18.4	-2.68
Bruce Bowen	71	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	6	-10	15.3	16.5	-1.27	16.4	15.8	0.58
Nazr Mohammed	34	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	2	-2	16.4	15.0	1.34	16.1	16.4	-0.26
Brent Barry	33	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	6	-10	15.2	15.7	-0.44	14.4	17.3	-2.87
Nick Van Exel	27	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	16.2	15.2	1.00	17.3	15.9	1.43
Rasho Nesterovic	42	44	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	4	-6	16.2	14.9	1.34	17.6	15.0	2.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	50	51	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-1	0	17.2	15.2	1.92	16.0	14.9	1.01
DeSagana Diop	31	30	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-3	4	16.7	16.1	0.68	16.2	15.2	1.02
Adrian Griffin	17	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	2	-6	18.6	15.8	2.89	16.1	15.4	0.66
Darrell Armstrong	5	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.12	-8	6	-14	18.6	16.2	2.44	14.0	15.6	-1.61
Devin Harris	51	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-5	8	15.7	17.0	-1.25	15.4	15.7	-0.32
Keith Van Horn	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.78	14	-16	30	15.5	18.5	-3.01	15.5	15.5	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	80	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	0	-2	16.0	18.3	-2.25	15.5	15.5	0.08
Marquis Daniels	82	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.47	-4	2	-6	16.3	16.1	0.21	15.4	16.7	-1.32
Jason Terry	73	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.38	-9	7	-16	16.2	16.6	-0.39	15.2	17.0	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 100, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.27,0.53,0.46,0.86,0.73,0	91.4%
DET 90, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.42,0	90.9%
MEM 104, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.42,0	90.9%