NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	1.8 [1311]		MVP	Nazr Mohammed (SAS): +6.9%
Golden State Warriors	89		Comeback	1.0 [616]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -4.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.04	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.16	0.00	0.10	13	81%	0.08	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	12	68%	0.05	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	69%	-0.00	2	0.00	5	100%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.06	8	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.20	-0.00	0.18	13	75%	0.02	1	-0.00	10	100%	0.00
Aaron Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	33%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Chris Taft	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.07	7	65%	-0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	31%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	9	30%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	10	42%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	9	30%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.5	27.3	16.4	28.4	2.5	25.2	123.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.6%

GSW -2.7%

SAS +16.4%

GSW -1.9%

GSW -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.6	120.2	95.7	104.4
season	16.3	14.8		106.0	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		104.0	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	17.7	14.5	17.9	16.4
GSW	15.7	15.0	16.1	10.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	48	49	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.38	26	-2	28	16.8	16.0	0.79	15.7	12.9	2.85
Manu Ginobili	41	41	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.58	31	-7	38	15.7	17.0	-1.36	16.0	13.1	2.84
Bruce Bowen	53	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.32	22	2	20	15.9	17.1	-1.19	15.3	13.1	2.22
Tony Parker	50	50	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.33	22	2	20	15.6	17.3	-1.68	15.4	13.1	2.28
Robert Horry	32	31	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	13	-2	15.9	16.7	-0.74	14.8	14.2	0.61
Rasho Nesterovic	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.34	19	5	14	16.6	16.3	0.32	15.6	13.6	2.03
Michael Finley	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	20	-16	17.0	16.1	0.95	13.8	14.7	-0.91
Nick Van Exel	29	29	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	23	-22	18.7	15.4	3.32	12.6	15.2	-2.54
Brent Barry	41	41	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	25	-26	16.9	16.1	0.76	13.6	14.9	-1.31
Nazr Mohammed	48	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	22	-20	15.7	17.2	-1.51	13.8	14.9	-1.10
Beno Udrih	31	30	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	31	-38	16.2	16.5	-0.35	12.1	15.4	-3.34
Fabricio Oberto	23	22	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	34	-44	17.5	16.1	1.45	9.9	15.7	-5.84

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Taft	12	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-34	44	9.5	15.1	-5.59	20.2	15.8	4.42
Andris Biedrins	11	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-28	32	14.3	14.4	-0.11	15.2	16.6	-1.37
Calbert Cheaney	30	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.39	13	-37	50	13.1	15.0	-1.92	16.2	16.5	-0.28
Aaron Miles	34	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.15	1	-25	26	12.8	15.3	-2.43	16.0	16.6	-0.61
Ike Diogu	29	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.16	-10	-14	4	14.6	14.3	0.27	14.4	17.3	-2.86
Zarko Cabarkapa	41	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-19	14	12.2	16.1	-3.84	17.5	15.6	1.94
Adonal Foyle	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.37	-20	-4	-16	15.4	13.7	1.70	16.4	16.5	-0.10
Mike Dunleavy	55	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-11	-2	13.7	15.3	-1.52	17.8	14.2	3.57
Jason Richardson	55	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.29	-21	-3	-18	15.4	12.9	2.53	16.5	16.3	0.14
Baron Davis	55	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.27	-21	-3	-18	15.4	12.9	2.44	16.4	16.4	0.03
Derek Fisher	47	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.43	-27	3	-30	14.8	13.9	0.85	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Troy Murphy	61	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.44	-31	7	-38	16.0	11.3	4.70	15.7	17.8	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 123, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.6%
LAC 119, BOS 106	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	97.5%
HOU 119, CHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%