NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	119		Excitement	1.8 [1307]		MVP	Mike James (HOU): +10.5%
Chicago Bulls	89		Comeback	1.2 [540]		LVP	Othella Harrington (CHI): -5.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.21	0.00	0.11	15	87%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	9	72%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	0.00	0.07	21	64%	0.04	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.01
Yao Ming	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.04	8	78%	0.04	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	5	33%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	100%	0.00	2	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	4	73%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	7	70%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	9	35%	-0.02	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	-0.12	11	21%	-0.03	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	7	61%	-0.01	1	-0.02	14	64%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	3	75%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	7	14%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	18	42%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	62%	-0.02	4	-0.04	9	56%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.0	29.1	15.5	23.5	2.3	30.7	130.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.7%

HOU +2.0%

HOU +0.6%

HOU +13.0%

HOU +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CHI	NBA	HOU	CHI	NBA
this game	15.9	15.1	15.5	128.0	95.7	104.0
season	16.0	15.1		104.2	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.8		98.9	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	16.4	14.7	18.0	15.9
CHI	17.3	14.9	14.7	13.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.37	28	2	26	16.2	15.2	0.95	15.3	14.4	0.84
David Wesley	58	58	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.31	25	5	20	15.0	17.4	-2.38	15.9	13.7	2.15
Juwan Howard	61	60	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.32	24	6	18	14.9	17.8	-2.94	15.6	14.0	1.68
Tracy McGrady	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.36	24	6	18	15.2	17.3	-2.11	15.5	14.2	1.37
Dikembe Mutombo	40	39	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	15	0	15.8	16.0	-0.11	14.2	15.7	-1.46
Jon Barry	43	44	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.15	13	17	-4	17.0	14.9	2.11	14.2	15.8	-1.57
Clar. Weatherspoon	33	35	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.45	21	9	12	15.7	16.0	-0.38	15.9	14.6	1.29
Yao Ming	19	21	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.23	11	19	-8	17.1	15.6	1.43	18.2	14.1	4.05
Moochie Norris	26	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	28	-26	15.2	16.2	-0.95	14.4	15.3	-0.84
Scott Padgett	21	20	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	32	-34	17.8	15.4	2.45	12.4	15.8	-3.38
Ryan Bowen	23	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	32	-34	18.0	15.2	2.71	13.3	15.6	-2.27
Vin Baker	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	39	-48	16.8	15.8	1.06	11.1	15.6	-4.49

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	2	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-32	34	14.0	15.1	-1.08	9.0	16.0	-6.99
Andres Nocioni	39	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.16	-7	-23	16	14.8	15.2	-0.36	16.1	15.8	0.37
Othella Harrington	52	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-27	24	13.2	17.4	-4.27	16.4	15.3	1.15
Jannero Pargo	40	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-24	18	13.9	15.9	-2.02	15.2	16.4	-1.17
Adrian Griffin	29	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	-21	12	16.2	14.5	1.68	14.3	16.7	-2.33
Chris Duhon	58	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	-18	6	15.1	15.0	0.09	16.6	14.8	1.79
Eric Piatkowski	41	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-21	12	13.8	16.1	-2.32	17.1	15.0	2.12
Tyson Chandler	31	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-23	16	13.6	15.8	-2.16	16.6	15.6	0.99
Antonio Davis	34	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.46	-26	-4	-22	17.8	13.5	4.27	14.7	16.6	-1.87
Eddy Curry	39	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.36	-24	-6	-18	17.1	13.6	3.44	15.5	16.2	-0.68
Ben Gordon	58	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.27	-21	-9	-12	14.2	16.4	-2.20	16.5	14.8	1.72
Kirk Hinrich	42	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.43	-28	-2	-26	17.3	13.2	4.11	14.8	16.8	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 123, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
SAS 121, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%
UTA 106, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%