NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	6.9 [464]		MVP	Mike James (TOR): +17.7%
Toronto Raptors	107		Comeback	7.3 [295]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -15.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	3	100%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.07	-0.02	14	54%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.04	-0.03	12	46%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	3	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	29	51%	0.14	3	-0.13	7	57%	-0.02
Wayne Simien	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	61%	0.03	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03
Gary Payton	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	10	27%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.12	0.02	16	64%	0.25	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.09	0.04	11	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	13	85%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	20	59%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	73%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	11	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darrick Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	31.0	16.5	23.7	2.7	35.6	138.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +13.0%

TOR +2.9%

TOR +24.0%

TOR +6.3%

TOR +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.0	14.8	15.6	101.1	113.8	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		106.1	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.5	18.3	16.0	16.0
TOR	14.8	14.6	17.7	12.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	27	29	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.12	5	-18	23	15.3	16.2	-0.95	16.0	14.3	1.68
Wayne Simien	18	17	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-14	15	15.3	16.1	-0.86	15.3	14.7	0.55
James Posey	70	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-7	1	15.8	16.6	-0.79	14.5	15.7	-1.14
Udonis Haslem	36	39	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-5	-3	18.1	14.6	3.45	15.0	14.7	0.27
Antoine Walker	65	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	0	-13	15.0	18.2	-3.16	14.2	16.1	-1.92
Alonzo Mourning	67	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-7	1	15.9	16.0	-0.10	15.2	13.8	1.42
Jason Kapono	30	31	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	0	-13	14.9	16.5	-1.58	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Gary Payton	72	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-2	-9	16.8	13.0	3.89	15.0	14.5	0.50
Dwyane Wade	80	81	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.28	-14	1	-15	16.0	15.9	0.05	14.8	15.2	-0.45

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	56	57	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.23	17	-4	21	13.8	16.3	-2.48	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Jose Calderon	54	53	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.09	20	-7	27	14.0	15.9	-1.89	15.5	16.5	-1.02
Mike James	78	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-2	17	14.8	15.1	-0.34	16.2	14.5	1.73
Jalen Rose	55	55	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	2	9	14.8	14.9	-0.19	16.4	15.3	1.15
Chris Bosh	84	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	2	9	14.8	15.2	-0.40	16.0	15.3	0.70
Darrick Martin	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	10.0	14.9	-4.89	9.0	16.0	-7.04
Matt Bonner	12	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.13	2	11	-9	13.6	15.0	-1.44	14.2	16.2	-1.98
Joey Graham	41	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.10	-1	14	-15	15.0	14.7	0.28	15.4	16.4	-0.91
Rafael Araujo	36	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	17	-21	16.9	13.6	3.36	17.1	15.3	1.75
Morris Peterson	53	51	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	19	-25	15.8	13.6	2.18	16.1	15.9	0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.14,0.25,0.38,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.28,0.62,0.72,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.32,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.4,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.92,1	91.6%
MIL 85, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.47,0.53,0.78,0.85,0.99,1	90.6%
POR 111, MEM 120	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.23,0.24,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.29,0.4,0.53,0.61,0.84,1,1	90.5%