NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	1.7 [1312]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +13.1%
Dallas Mavericks	119		Comeback	1.1 [1183]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -4.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.02	0.02	7	63%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	70%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	43%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	7	28%	-0.01	1	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	8	25%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.03	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.12	0.00	-0.08	5	0%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.04	15	50%	-0.03	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.00	-0.00	15	65%	0.15	2	-0.01	10	90%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.06	9	89%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	62%	0.06	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.07	9	70%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	17	55%	0.02	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.02	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Rawle Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	25.3	17.4	25.9	2.7	27.3	127.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +37.8%

DAL +4.2%

DAL +7.4%

DAL +1.1%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	17.4	16.3	15.6	96.5	138.4	104.4
season	16.9	16.4		108.3	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		102.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.6	15.1	17.2	17.8	17.4
DAL	13.4	19.1	15.5	17.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	13	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-35	33	16.8	17.6	-0.79	17.5	16.1	1.45
Dale Davis	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.28	-10	-27	17	17.0	17.5	-0.49	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Carlos Arroyo	42	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.17	-7	-30	23	16.0	18.8	-2.84	18.2	14.7	3.52
Darko Milicic	27	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.10	-7	-30	23	17.6	17.4	0.18	17.7	15.6	2.16
Carlos Delfino	35	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.40	-20	-17	-3	18.4	16.8	1.59	16.6	16.0	0.55
Maurice Evans	38	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.69	-30	-7	-23	17.3	17.5	-0.22	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Ben Wallace	42	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-30	23	17.2	17.6	-0.39	16.3	16.2	0.05
Antonio McDyess	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.32	-20	-17	-3	18.9	16.9	2.01	16.2	16.3	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	47	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-30	23	17.5	17.3	0.22	16.7	15.6	1.11
Richard Hamilton	50	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	-20	3	16.8	18.4	-1.59	16.0	16.6	-0.55
Rasheed Wallace	54	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.37	-26	-11	-15	17.4	17.4	0.03	15.3	18.0	-2.73
Chauncey Billups	44	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.48	-32	-5	-27	18.4	16.4	2.02	14.7	18.2	-3.52

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	69	68	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.56	37	0	37	15.8	18.1	-2.25	17.8	16.0	1.79
Marquis Daniels	64	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.52	34	3	31	15.8	17.6	-1.86	17.2	18.0	-0.77
Dirk Nowitzki	58	56	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.36	26	11	15	15.6	17.5	-1.90	17.4	17.5	-0.07
Erick Dampier	45	43	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	21	-5	15.9	16.7	-0.77	17.8	17.0	0.81
Devin Harris	51	50	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.62	32	5	27	16.6	15.7	0.86	17.7	17.1	0.64
Jason Terry	51	52	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.03	6	31	-25	17.0	15.2	1.73	17.3	17.7	-0.43
DeSagana Diop	35	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.40	18	19	-1	17.4	15.5	1.93	17.7	17.3	0.45
Josh Powell	34	35	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.14	7	30	-23	18.1	15.1	2.98	16.9	17.8	-0.98
Darrell Armstrong	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	36	-35	12.3	16.5	-4.22	16.1	17.6	-1.41
DJ Mbenga	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	33	-29	12.3	16.5	-4.22	16.1	17.6	-1.41
Rawle Marshall	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	33	-29	16.7	16.2	0.54	17.2	17.5	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 86, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.5%
ORL 81, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%
DEN 95, LAL 130	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%