NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	5.2 [807]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +14.3%
Denver Nuggets	122		Comeback	1.2 [999]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -11.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney White	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	10	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	1	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	16	74%	0.19	6	-0.15	6	67%	0.03
Jason Richardson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	0.01	0.07	21	59%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.01	-0.06	8	25%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	15	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	9	26%	-0.04	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	16	73%	0.17	1	-0.03	12	67%	-0.02
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	71%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	6	86%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	63%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.05	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.0	31.1	16.4	28.4	2.3	26.6	130.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +30.7%

DEN +5.9%

GSW -1.7%

DEN +9.8%

DEN +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	12.6	15.5	100.0	113.0	104.0
season	15.0	14.8		102.3	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.2		102.3	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.6	16.1	16.5	12.7	14.4
DEN	11.4	11.2	13.5	14.4	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	25	26	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-21	26	14.1	14.4	-0.32	14.8	11.9	2.90
Rodney White	52	53	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-20	24	12.8	15.9	-3.06	13.2	12.0	1.15
Andris Biedrins	42	43	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-19	22	14.2	14.5	-0.25	13.4	12.0	1.46
Derek Fisher	59	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-18	20	13.5	15.5	-2.01	13.9	10.9	2.98
Mike Dunleavy	46	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-6	-4	15.3	13.6	1.73	11.9	13.1	-1.24
Mickael Pietrus	51	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	-4	-8	13.3	15.4	-2.15	12.8	12.3	0.49
Jason Richardson	76	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	-1	-14	15.2	12.3	2.93	12.4	13.0	-0.56
Baron Davis	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	-2	-12	14.7	13.7	0.94	11.5	14.6	-3.09
Adonal Foyle	41	40	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	3	-22	15.6	13.6	2.06	11.6	13.1	-1.49
Troy Murphy	68	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.10	-24	8	-32	14.7	13.8	0.86	11.7	14.2	-2.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	77	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.14	23	-7	30	11.9	14.3	-2.37	15.1	12.6	2.50
Marcus Camby	69	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.19	24	-8	32	11.3	14.8	-3.49	15.0	13.1	1.89
Andre Miller	76	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	5	6	12.1	13.6	-1.46	13.9	15.5	-1.62
DerMarr Johnson	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	0	16	11.6	13.7	-2.11	14.5	14.3	0.19
Eduardo Najera	55	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	0	16	11.8	13.3	-1.48	15.8	13.0	2.75
Earl Boykins	52	51	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	12	-8	14.1	11.1	3.03	14.9	13.9	1.03
Bryon Russell	22	21	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	19	-22	14.6	12.0	2.60	13.0	14.7	-1.71
Wesley Person	36	38	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.18	-4	20	-24	14.1	11.8	2.36	13.1	15.1	-1.97
Nene	38	38	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	21	-26	13.9	11.9	2.01	12.7	15.3	-2.58
Kenyon Martin	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	14	-12	13.0	12.4	0.53	13.7	14.6	-0.94
Francisco Elson	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	16.8	12.4	4.44	12.8	14.4	-1.65
Greg Buckner	25	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	18	-20	12.7	12.5	0.20	14.2	14.4	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.91,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 83, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
NOK 78, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.8,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
SAC 79, WAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%