NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	119		Excitement	4.4 [961]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +13.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	107		Comeback	1.2 [508]		LVP	Keith Bogans (CHA): -5.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.01	10	82%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	10	75%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.05	-0.04	22	52%	0.10	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	80%	0.08	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	-0.00	15	64%	0.07	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Pape Sow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	8	77%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	16	72%	0.11	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Bernard Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	11	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	64%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	27.2	16.0	25.3	2.3	28.6	125.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +26.6%

CHA -3.8%

TOR +3.0%

TOR +22.6%

TOR +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	15.5	120.2	113.8	104.0
season	15.1	15.5		104.8	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		105.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.7	16.0	16.1	17.7	15.5
CHA	15.1	13.3	15.2	13.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	91	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-1	14	15.3	17.5	-2.16	14.5	11.9	2.64
Chris Bosh	90	85	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	3	6	15.6	14.3	1.30	14.4	13.7	0.70
Morris Peterson	83	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-1	14	15.0	18.1	-3.11	14.3	14.2	0.12
Rafer Alston	51	47	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	0	12	14.3	16.8	-2.56	15.1	13.4	1.70
Rafael Araujo	40	36	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.05	12	0	12	14.7	16.0	-1.28	16.0	13.2	2.80
Matt Bonner	23	21	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.12	3	9	-6	17.3	15.0	2.33	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Donyell Marshall	59	58	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	12	-12	16.0	14.7	1.28	13.2	16.0	-2.80
Milt Palacio	48	47	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.18	0	12	-12	16.8	14.3	2.56	13.4	15.1	-1.70
Pape Sow	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	10	-8	15.0	15.5	-0.52	8.0	14.4	-6.37
Eric Williams	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	16	-20	16.2	15.4	0.78	13.6	14.4	-0.82

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	49	50	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.17	9	-21	30	12.3	16.5	-4.16	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Malik Allen	24	24	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-17	22	12.2	15.0	-2.81	15.1	15.6	-0.52
Cory Alexander	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-11	10	10.7	14.5	-3.71	18.4	15.4	3.04
Bernard Robinson	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-11	10	10.7	14.5	-3.71	18.4	15.4	3.04
Melvin Ely	44	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.15	4	-16	20	13.5	15.0	-1.46	14.9	16.0	-1.15
Matt Carroll	48	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-17	22	12.3	16.4	-4.10	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Jason Hart	35	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-12	12	13.8	14.6	-0.84	15.4	15.6	-0.15
Keith Bogans	36	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.07	-13	1	-14	16.6	12.8	3.79	15.2	15.7	-0.49
Emeka Okafor	65	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.09	-13	1	-14	14.6	13.7	0.83	16.1	14.2	1.93
Brevin Knight	62	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.08	-15	3	-18	15.1	12.7	2.49	15.7	15.1	0.56
Primoz Brezec	51	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.03	-19	7	-26	15.9	12.4	3.51	15.2	15.9	-0.71
Gerald Wallace	48	52	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	0.02	-21	9	-30	16.2	12.3	3.82	15.5	15.6	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 106, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
NYK 91, CHH 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.08,0	94.9%
NYK 116, TOR 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%