NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	6.7 [524]		MVP	Lee Nailon (NOH): +20.5%
New Orleans Hornets	111		Comeback	1.3 [988]		LVP	Chris Andersen (NOH): -24.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	-0.00	-0.02	7	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.13	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Fizer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.01	24	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Toni Kukoc	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	47%	-0.00	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	11	46%	-0.04	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.00	9	89%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.01	9	73%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.00	8	55%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Dan Dickau	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	16	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.00	-0.03	9	61%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	53%	0.03	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.05	-0.01	10	30%	-0.18	3	-0.07	10	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	28.5	15.7	23.2	2.4	40.5	137.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +24.4%

MIL -8.0%

NOH +6.1%

NOH +24.1%

NOH +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NOH	NBA	MIL	NOH	NBA
this game	16.6	13.9	15.5	113.8	116.8	104.0
season	16.0	16.5		104.4	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.0		105.2	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.2	14.0	21.0	14.3	16.6
NOH	15.3	14.8	14.0	11.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	31	32	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.07	8	-12	20	15.0	17.3	-2.35	14.0	13.9	0.17
Marcus Fizer	32	33	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.12	9	-13	22	15.6	17.1	-1.53	15.5	13.1	2.36
Erick Strickland	10	10	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-8	12	15.2	16.7	-1.54	17.9	13.4	4.45
Zaza Pachulia	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-2	0	15.6	16.7	-1.09	13.9	13.9	-0.02
Anthony Goldwire	36	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-4	4	15.4	17.3	-1.97	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Mo Williams	59	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	1	-6	17.1	15.7	1.32	13.6	14.5	-0.90
Dan Gadzuric	83	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.41	-1	-3	2	16.9	14.4	2.50	14.2	11.7	2.57
Joe Smith	61	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.26	-12	8	-20	17.3	15.2	2.19	13.5	14.6	-1.08
Desmond Mason	70	71	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.32	-10	6	-16	17.0	15.2	1.83	13.6	14.8	-1.23
Michael Redd	78	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.34	-11	7	-18	16.8	15.6	1.14	13.3	16.9	-3.63

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	74	74	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-8	20	13.9	14.1	-0.29	16.6	16.5	0.03
Dan Dickau	60	60	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-6	16	13.3	15.0	-1.67	16.8	16.2	0.53
Lee Nailon	41	41	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	-4	12	12.9	14.7	-1.83	18.1	15.4	2.66
J.R. Smith	53	52	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	2	0	13.7	14.2	-0.54	17.7	15.2	2.46
Casey Jacobsen	46	46	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	0	4	13.1	14.7	-1.65	14.2	18.8	-4.57
Bostjan Nachbar	54	53	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	8	-12	14.7	12.9	1.83	15.4	18.1	-2.66
Chris Andersen	60	57	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.37	-7	11	-18	14.7	12.6	2.08	15.7	17.9	-2.22
Jackson Vroman	52	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	3	-2	14.1	13.7	0.44	18.5	14.1	4.31
Speedy Claxton	35	34	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	10	-16	15.0	13.3	1.67	16.2	16.8	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.84,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 89, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.99,1	94.7%
HOU 71, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,1,1	94.6%
SAC 82, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.91,1,1	94.6%