NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	5.2 [806]		MVP	Darius Songaila (SAC): +10.2%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	1.0 [1261]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -12.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	5	50%	0.02	1	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	83%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.06
Antonio McDyess	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	11	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	14	47%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	20	43%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	11	46%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	14	35%	-0.07	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.02	0.03	9	78%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	13	63%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	14	43%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	15	41%	0.02	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.04	17	50%	-0.06	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.4	33.5	17.6	26.3	3.7	31.2	138.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +48.7%

SAC +11.2%

DET -13.6%

SAC +1.4%

SAC +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	16.5	14.4	15.5	92.4	105.3	104.0
season	16.7	14.7		103.5	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.9		106.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	15.3	17.0	18.7	16.5
SAC	13.6	13.5	15.0	15.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	19	19	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.15	7	-22	29	16.6	16.4	0.21	14.8	14.3	0.53
Darvin Ham	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	13.3	16.7	-3.35	14.5	14.4	0.14
Carlos Arroyo	43	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-18	21	14.7	18.0	-3.32	14.4	14.3	0.14
Ben Wallace	59	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-11	7	16.3	16.8	-0.45	14.1	14.7	-0.59
Ronald Dupree	11	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-6	-3	14.5	16.7	-2.18	12.0	14.7	-2.74
Antonio McDyess	39	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.08	-12	-3	-9	16.4	16.5	-0.10	14.5	14.3	0.17
Tayshaun Prince	74	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-7	-1	16.7	15.4	1.27	14.6	13.3	1.38
Richard Hamilton	74	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.04	-16	1	-17	16.5	16.2	0.30	14.1	15.6	-1.51
Chauncey Billups	57	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	-20	5	-25	17.6	14.7	2.88	14.7	13.8	0.91
Rasheed Wallace	78	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.02	-18	3	-21	17.0	13.6	3.33	14.5	13.7	0.75

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	87	85	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.05	20	-5	25	14.4	14.2	0.13	16.5	16.4	0.04
Brian Skinner	65	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-2	19	14.2	14.8	-0.63	16.8	15.8	1.04
Peja Stojakovic	80	78	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	4	7	14.3	14.5	-0.20	16.8	14.5	2.32
Darius Songaila	41	40	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	7	1	14.8	14.0	0.81	16.5	16.4	0.06
Maurice Evans	77	73	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	10	-5	14.1	15.3	-1.19	15.7	19.3	-3.59
Kenny Thomas	62	61	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	13	-11	14.0	15.0	-0.92	16.2	17.1	-0.90
Kevin Martin	20	19	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	10	-5	14.0	14.5	-0.47	15.4	16.7	-1.32
Eddie House	21	21	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	11	-7	15.6	14.0	1.61	18.7	15.8	2.85
Corliss Williamson	22	21	0.04	0.47	-0.43	-0.05	3	12	-9	15.0	14.2	0.82	16.3	16.5	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.73,0.9,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 68, TOR 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1	94.1%
NJN 78, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
LAL 82, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.83,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	93.7%