NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	5.6 [727]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +6.5%
Washington Wizards	90		Comeback	1.4 [434]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): -12.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.07	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.19	-0.03	0.10	19	79%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Baron Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.06	0.02	-0.09	17	40%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.07	13	50%	0.06	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	15	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	16	48%	-0.08	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	42%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	0%	-0.05
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	2	12%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.04	-0.07	18	52%	0.08	8	-0.19	8	75%	-0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	21	48%	-0.10	1	-0.02	14	79%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	12	35%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	30.5	15.5	30.4	2.4	28.4	132.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +17.3%

GSW +15.8%

WAS -3.2%

GSW +17.7%

GSW +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	16.6	13.3	15.5	107.3	92.8	104.0
season	15.0	14.7		102.3	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	13.0	17.9	22.4	16.6
WAS	16.3	11.9	14.8	10.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	75	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.14	24	-11	35	16.1	18.3	-2.19	13.6	12.0	1.62
Derek Fisher	80	82	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-4	21	16.4	17.2	-0.81	13.2	13.9	-0.68
Jason Richardson	81	82	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-6	25	16.2	18.5	-2.32	13.5	12.0	1.52
Troy Murphy	81	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.12	13	0	13	16.7	15.9	0.84	13.2	13.5	-0.30
Baron Davis	62	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	4	5	17.6	14.7	2.89	12.2	15.2	-3.04
Andris Biedrins	14	13	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	9	-5	21.6	15.7	5.85	13.2	13.3	-0.07
Calbert Cheaney	20	21	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	16	-19	19.0	15.9	3.13	13.5	13.2	0.30
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	21.0	16.4	4.62	9.0	13.4	-4.43
Zarko Cabarkapa	17	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.15	-6	19	-25	14.8	16.9	-2.13	12.6	13.5	-0.90
Adonal Foyle	46	49	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	21	-29	14.3	18.7	-4.40	14.5	12.1	2.39

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	32	32	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-16	19	11.8	14.0	-2.20	14.1	17.8	-3.77
Laron Profit	12	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-14	15	8.8	13.9	-5.08	21.3	15.9	5.44
Kwame Brown	46	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	-8	3	14.6	12.1	2.47	14.9	18.1	-3.21
Steve Blake	26	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	-6	-1	11.0	14.1	-3.07	21.9	14.6	7.28
Brendan Haywood	73	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-6	-1	13.8	11.8	1.99	15.3	20.3	-5.07
Gilbert Arenas	84	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-1	-11	13.8	9.8	3.98	16.0	20.5	-4.59
Larry Hughes	88	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-3	-7	13.3	13.4	-0.17	16.7	15.4	1.25
Michael Ruffin	48	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	-3	-7	12.8	13.8	-0.94	19.0	14.1	4.94
Antawn Jamison	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.05	-18	5	-23	13.9	11.2	2.62	16.3	17.6	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.0%
NJN 96, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	94.9%
BKN 98, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%