NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	4.8 [521]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +15.4%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.5 [149]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -8.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	19	74%	0.27	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Dana Barros	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	0.01	0.07	10	104%	0.20	5	-0.11	6	83%	-0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Walter McCarty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	9	45%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Riley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marlon Garnett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.02	-0.03	20	42%	-0.00	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.02	8	76%	0.07	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	11	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	12	58%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.01	-0.07	12	56%	0.09	9	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	27.2	15.4	29.7	1.6	28.8	130.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +40.2%

MIA -7.2%

BOS +7.7%

BOS +6.1%

BOS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.8	113.8	101.1	99.6
season	15.0	16.6		98.1	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.8		96.8	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	14.5	13.7	19.8	15.5
MIA	13.6	14.3	17.6	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	70	70	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	1	9	15.5	15.6	-0.10	14.7	15.8	-1.07
Vitaly Potapenko	63	63	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-2	15	16.0	14.6	1.39	15.4	14.2	1.22
Ron Mercer	88	90	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	1	9	15.5	16.3	-0.88	15.0	14.0	1.02
Paul Pierce	87	87	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	5	1	15.8	12.3	3.48	15.0	14.5	0.51
Damon Jones	31	32	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	3	5	14.9	15.8	-0.95	16.5	14.2	2.36
Dana Barros	63	63	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	8	-5	15.8	14.9	0.95	14.2	16.5	-2.36
Greg Minor	9	8	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	5	1	13.8	15.7	-1.92	13.7	15.1	-1.33
Eric Riley	10	10	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	9	-7	13.1	15.8	-2.70	11.1	15.4	-4.32
Marlon Garnett	4	5	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	11	-11	15.0	15.5	-0.53	15.2	15.0	0.24
Tony Battie	45	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	14	-17	15.4	15.6	-0.13	15.7	14.3	1.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	39	38	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.34	15	-26	41	14.7	15.2	-0.51	16.2	15.0	1.22
Keith Askins	17	17	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.33	12	-23	35	14.6	15.0	-0.39	16.5	15.3	1.17
Voshon Lenard	24	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.31	10	-21	31	14.2	15.2	-1.02	18.9	14.3	4.57
Tim Hardaway	66	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-14	17	14.8	15.3	-0.54	15.5	15.5	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	67	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-9	7	15.1	14.7	0.36	15.5	15.4	0.12
Terry Porter	54	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	8	-27	15.4	14.3	1.10	16.0	14.8	1.21
Dan Majerle	63	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.13	-24	13	-37	14.9	15.0	-0.09	14.0	18.5	-4.48
Jamal Mashburn	67	66	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.19	-26	15	-41	15.2	14.4	0.82	14.4	18.1	-3.75
P.J. Brown	78	78	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	0.05	-24	13	-37	15.0	15.0	-0.04	15.7	14.7	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, MIL 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
GSW 103, WAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
UTA 92, VAN 73	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%