NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	7.2 [415]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +32.7%
Charlotte Bobcats	102		Comeback	1.4 [578]		LVP	Melvin Ely (CHA): -17.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.33	0.20	0.16	0.03	24	70%	0.35	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.04
Dan Gadzuric	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	5	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	60%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Mo Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	7	64%	0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	17	54%	0.05	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	12	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	66%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	13	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Jason Kapono	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	12	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.07	0.02	9	62%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Theron Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	16	35%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	10	44%	-0.06	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.4	24.6	15.6	30.2	2.4	33.2	135.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +94.9%

CHA -29.5%

CHA -22.3%

MIL +6.3%

MIL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHA	NBA	MIL	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	14.7	15.5	116.7	104.1	104.0
season	16.0	15.5		104.4	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.0		105.4	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.3	16.4	14.3	16.0	14.9
CHA	15.5	13.1	14.0	16.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	86	87	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-3	16	14.4	20.0	-5.64	14.6	15.7	-1.11
Dan Gadzuric	39	40	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-1	12	13.4	16.0	-2.55	16.8	13.3	3.47
Michael Redd	74	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	4	2	14.8	15.4	-0.60	15.3	13.0	2.22
Mike James	43	45	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	4	2	16.3	13.8	2.50	15.3	14.3	0.96
Joe Smith	79	81	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.07	11	-1	12	15.2	13.6	1.58	14.5	16.1	-1.66
Mo Williams	53	53	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	6	-2	13.8	16.3	-2.50	14.3	15.3	-0.96
Zaza Pachulia	37	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	8	-6	16.0	14.3	1.71	12.4	16.2	-3.76
Keith Van Horn	24	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	18	-26	17.5	14.1	3.46	15.0	14.6	0.40

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	66	64	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-17	24	14.4	15.4	-0.94	15.5	13.9	1.56
Jason Kapono	12	11	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-16	22	12.6	15.0	-2.46	15.4	14.9	0.47
Steven Smith	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-8	6	21.6	14.2	7.35	10.7	15.2	-4.57
Keith Bogans	51	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.22	4	-14	18	15.6	13.8	1.80	14.0	15.9	-1.98
Kareem Rush	64	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-2	-6	14.2	15.8	-1.65	14.6	15.6	-0.99
Gerald Wallace	57	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	3	-16	15.3	14.0	1.28	15.5	14.1	1.35
Theron Smith	46	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-5	0	13.8	15.6	-1.85	15.7	14.3	1.44
Melvin Ely	58	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.22	-12	2	-14	14.9	14.6	0.29	14.4	15.7	-1.26
Brevin Knight	57	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	2	-14	14.5	15.1	-0.61	15.4	14.3	1.09
Primoz Brezec	72	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	5	-20	14.9	14.2	0.70	14.9	15.1	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.57,0.42,0.59,0.35,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.26,0.31,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.11,0.21,0.04,0,0	93.7%
CLE 97, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.21,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.05,0,0,0	92.4%
MIN 101, LAC 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.26,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.18,0.09,0.02,0,0,0	92.4%