NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	82		Excitement	7.1 [440]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (GSW): +21.3%
Golden State Warriors	90		Comeback	2.7 [734]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -22.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	20	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	12	39%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Junior Harrington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.00	9	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	9	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jackson Vroman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.10	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.09	-0.04	8	75%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	10	61%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	14	47%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	9	33%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	10	28%	-0.13	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.04
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.24,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.09	0.03	24	45%	-0.13	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	26.3	16.4	27.0	1.7	34.2	129.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH -4.6%

GSW +10.8%

GSW +14.3%

GSW +29.2%

GSW +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	GSW	NBA	NOH	GSW	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.5	90.1	97.8	104.0
season	16.5	15.0		97.7	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.7		104.7	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.0	13.7	17.0	17.3	16.2
GSW	13.8	18.4	14.3	14.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	47	49	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-13	18	15.2	17.3	-2.17	15.8	14.7	1.06
J.R. Smith	35	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-10	12	16.6	16.0	0.62	15.8	14.9	0.89
Jackson Vroman	20	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-10	12	15.7	16.4	-0.60	17.4	14.7	2.65
Rodney Rogers	74	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.25	2	-10	12	16.0	17.0	-0.96	15.8	12.7	3.04
Chris Andersen	24	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	16.7	16.0	0.72	14.3	15.6	-1.29
Junior Harrington	33	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-5	2	16.2	16.2	-0.06	15.6	15.1	0.54
Dan Dickau	67	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-5	2	15.5	18.2	-2.64	15.6	14.2	1.40
P.J. Brown	64	65	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.08	-15	7	-22	16.4	15.9	0.52	14.4	17.3	-2.88
Casey Jacobsen	47	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	4	-16	17.0	15.4	1.53	14.1	16.5	-2.46
George Lynch	44	43	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.15	-13	5	-18	17.3	15.2	2.17	14.7	15.8	-1.06

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	59	58	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.22	18	-10	28	14.3	17.0	-2.66	16.7	15.4	1.25
Derek Fisher	57	56	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.26	16	-8	24	14.4	16.7	-2.35	16.6	15.6	0.96
Mickael Pietrus	47	47	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	0	8	14.9	15.7	-0.84	17.1	15.2	1.92
Eduardo Najera	37	39	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	0	8	15.4	15.1	0.29	16.2	16.2	-0.07
Speedy Claxton	57	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	8	-8	15.6	14.7	0.88	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Zarko Cabarkapa	40	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	4	0	14.8	15.6	-0.86	15.5	16.8	-1.33
Jason Richardson	79	76	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	11	-14	15.9	11.4	4.51	15.5	19.8	-4.29
Mike Dunleavy	52	52	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.08	-1	9	-10	15.5	14.9	0.64	16.3	16.1	0.29
Adonal Foyle	32	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	18	-28	17.0	14.3	2.67	15.9	16.4	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.51,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.53,0.79,0.65,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.91,1,1	92.7%
OKC 85, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.6%
NYK 103, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.59,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,1	92.5%