NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	3.4 [1142]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +9.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	1.2 [538]		LVP	Lamar Odom (LAL): -8.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.03	10	77%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	17	56%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.08	7	31%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	10	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	-0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	60%	0.03	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.10	6	83%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	58%	-0.04	4	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	16	59%	0.03	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.0	28.3	19.5	28.6	2.0	35.0	139.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +12.8%

SAS +5.0%

SAS +8.2%

SAS +20.2%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	17.2	14.6	15.5	112.0	102.2	104.0
season	16.3	15.7		105.8	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		108.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.6	18.3	13.4	19.0	17.2
LAL	15.1	15.1	19.4	9.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	34	35	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-3	18	16.6	17.5	-0.87	16.3	13.5	2.84
Tony Parker	72	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-4	20	17.3	16.7	0.53	15.2	12.7	2.47
Manu Ginobili	64	61	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-5	22	16.7	18.1	-1.41	14.9	14.0	0.85
Robert Horry	33	35	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-2	16	15.2	18.2	-2.99	16.3	13.5	2.75
Bruce Bowen	56	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.33	0	12	-12	16.9	17.6	-0.74	15.4	13.5	1.83
Brent Barry	41	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	8	-4	16.2	17.9	-1.75	14.0	15.2	-1.11
Malik Rose	56	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	9	-6	18.3	15.4	2.82	13.4	16.4	-2.98
Tony Massenburg	43	38	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.15	8	4	4	17.6	16.8	0.79	15.4	14.0	1.36
Beno Udrih	20	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	16	-20	16.7	17.3	-0.53	12.7	15.2	-2.47
Devin Brown	41	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.32	-13	25	-38	19.2	15.5	3.75	11.5	16.8	-5.36

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tierre Brown	16	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-13	14	13.2	14.9	-1.74	18.4	16.9	1.46
Slava Medvedenko	4	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.19	-8	-4	-4	23.7	14.2	9.56	14.2	17.3	-3.13
Luke Walton	56	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-15	18	13.3	16.9	-3.64	17.5	16.6	0.92
Brian Cook	34	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-21	30	10.9	16.9	-6.00	17.9	16.7	1.15
Brian Grant	20	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.20	-12	0	-12	15.7	14.3	1.40	16.5	17.4	-0.89
Chris Mihm	45	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	1	-14	16.9	12.3	4.64	16.4	17.9	-1.45
Lamar Odom	75	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-12	12	14.1	17.1	-3.00	17.6	14.7	2.98
Jumaine Jones	47	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	2	-16	16.5	12.5	4.06	16.7	17.7	-0.99
Chucky Atkins	73	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	1	-14	14.9	13.2	1.74	16.9	18.4	-1.46
Caron Butler	75	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	1	-14	14.4	15.6	-1.22	17.2	16.9	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, LAC 75	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
UTA 99, CHA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.8%
TOR 105, ATL 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.24,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%