NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.2 [603]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +14.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	100		Comeback	15.6 [40]		LVP	Mike James (MIL): -16.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.01	7	72%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Earl Boykins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	12	57%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Marcus Camby	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	11	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	18	56%	0.05	3	-0.10	9	56%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	16	44%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	20	57%	0.09	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.04
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	12	66%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	-0.03	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	10	65%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	19	38%	-0.06	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.02	8	44%	-0.00	3	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.3	28.5	16.8	32.6	0.8	38.3	140.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.7%

DEN +4.5%

DEN +7.4%

DEN +7.8%

DEN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.5	15.5	114.0	109.9	104.0
season	14.8	16.0		103.8	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.6		107.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	14.8	15.5	12.6	14.9
MIL	15.1	18.0	17.2	15.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	57	55	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.31	24	-18	42	13.8	16.5	-2.68	16.0	17.1	-1.12
Earl Boykins	69	67	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.29	18	-12	30	14.2	16.7	-2.43	16.1	17.5	-1.35
Andre Miller	66	65	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-5	16	14.7	15.3	-0.67	17.4	14.2	3.12
Carmelo Anthony	66	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	2	2	15.0	14.4	0.64	16.6	16.2	0.32
Bryon Russell	40	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.08	9	-3	12	13.4	15.9	-2.52	15.1	17.5	-2.37
Kenyon Martin	60	58	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	11	-16	16.4	12.0	4.43	16.1	17.1	-0.99
Marcus Camby	69	69	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.18	-7	13	-20	14.3	16.3	-1.99	17.1	14.4	2.71
Greg Buckner	41	41	-0.64	1.14	-1.78	0.06	-24	30	-54	16.4	13.7	2.74	16.1	16.8	-0.71

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	56	57	0.36	-0.86	1.23	-0.22	20	-26	46	15.8	17.5	-1.66	15.4	14.1	1.27
Dan Gadzuric	68	69	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.19	8	-14	22	16.1	17.5	-1.42	15.6	12.7	2.96
Toni Kukoc	9	8	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-7	8	19.0	16.2	2.82	15.5	14.8	0.70
Desmond Mason	85	87	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-8	10	16.3	19.2	-2.90	14.9	14.0	0.92
Joe Smith	75	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-5	4	17.0	13.9	3.06	15.6	10.8	4.84
Michael Redd	68	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-8	10	15.8	18.5	-2.76	15.3	13.5	1.78
Zaza Pachulia	21	21	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	8	-22	18.4	15.9	2.50	14.2	15.1	-0.87
Keith Van Horn	36	37	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.06	-22	16	-38	16.5	16.5	0.02	12.1	16.7	-4.62
Mike James	37	39	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.11	-26	20	-46	17.0	16.1	0.91	13.2	16.1	-2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.22,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, NOK 76	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.35,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.03,0,0	91.9%
DAL 127, GSW 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.71,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.03,0,0	91.9%
POR 88, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.69,0.47,0.28,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0	91.8%