NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	88		Excitement	6.5 [554]		MVP	Dan Dickau (NOH): +18.4%
New York Knicks	82		Comeback	1.1 [649]		LVP	Allan Houston (NYK): -24.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	6	106%	0.22	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Lee Nailon	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.12	0.01	14	60%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	11	61%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	16	47%	-0.07	3	-0.11	13	77%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	14	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	63%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	15	42%	-0.03	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25	-0.25	-0.06	-0.19	-0.01	20	39%	-0.25	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.4	28.7	17.3	23.5	2.7	34.0	132.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +37.5%

NOH +16.7%

NYK -4.8%

NYK -7.6%

NOH +8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	NYK	NBA	NOH	NYK	NBA
this game	20.0	16.9	15.5	111.4	106.5	104.0
season	16.5	15.8		97.7	103.9
opponent	15.3	15.7		106.5	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.9	20.4	21.2	21.8	20.0
NYK	18.3	18.5	14.8	16.1	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lee Nailon	57	58	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.24	16	-10	26	19.7	20.8	-1.07	17.7	14.5	3.13
Baron Davis	63	64	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-9	24	19.9	20.2	-0.31	17.2	15.3	1.90
Rodney Rogers	62	61	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-11	28	20.1	19.5	0.67	17.1	16.0	1.11
P.J. Brown	60	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-1	8	19.9	20.4	-0.55	17.1	16.4	0.65
Dan Dickau	46	44	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	12	-18	20.0	19.9	0.10	16.0	18.1	-2.17
J.R. Smith	49	46	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	3	0	20.0	19.9	0.11	17.3	16.2	1.10
Bostjan Nachbar	33	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	12	-18	19.6	20.3	-0.62	15.9	17.6	-1.67
Chris Andersen	25	23	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.15	-16	22	-38	21.1	19.5	1.64	15.3	17.6	-2.31

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moochie Norris	17	19	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-13	20	19.6	16.1	3.55	24.3	18.6	5.61
Trevor Ariza	48	48	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.22	8	-14	22	17.1	16.4	0.70	20.4	19.5	0.90
Stephon Marbury	72	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-3	0	16.7	20.2	-3.55	20.0	19.8	0.21
Nazr Mohammed	46	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	3	-12	17.9	15.4	2.45	21.4	17.7	3.70
Jerome Williams	64	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	0	-6	16.3	19.9	-3.66	19.2	23.9	-4.69
Kurt Thomas	73	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.29	-11	5	-16	16.6	21.5	-4.87	19.6	26.2	-6.62
Allan Houston	65	65	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.28	-16	10	-26	16.4	19.4	-3.00	18.7	25.9	-7.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 115, OKC 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.35,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0	93.5%
WAS 113, BKN 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.34,0.44,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	93.2%
MIN 102, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.18,0	93.0%