NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Excitement	7.5 [317]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): +21.1%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	1.0 [810]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -13.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.10	0.01	14	76%	0.27	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.04
Wally Szczerbiak	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.09	0.02	13	64%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.06	-0.06	0.11	-0.01	20	46%	0.11	2	-0.05	6	67%	0.00
Todd Day	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Peeler	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	10	43%	-0.05	1	-0.08	10	90%	0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	75%	0.14	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.10	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.01,0.1,0.16,0.16,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	21	52%	0.16	3	-0.18	6	67%	0.00
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.14	-0.00	12	68%	0.09	4	-0.22	4	75%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	24	37%	-0.10	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	29.1	14.7	27.3	2.5	33.3	134.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +7.3%

MIN +12.8%

BOS -12.8%

MIN +35.8%

MIN +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	BOS	NBA	MIN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.5	107.4	103.2	100.9
season	15.0	15.1		102.9	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.9		101.8	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.0	14.0	17.7	15.2	14.9
BOS	17.0	16.0	13.7	14.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	74	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.42	7	-3	10	15.0	14.8	0.24	15.6	14.5	1.10
Kevin Garnett	83	81	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-6	16	14.9	15.1	-0.16	15.6	14.1	1.44
Terrell Brandon	76	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-3	10	14.9	15.1	-0.20	15.6	14.5	1.10
Wally Szczerbiak	77	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-3	10	14.8	15.5	-0.68	15.8	13.5	2.30
LaPhonso Ellis	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-2	8	15.1	14.6	0.56	16.2	13.9	2.22
Todd Day	19	19	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	-3	10	14.1	15.2	-1.05	14.9	15.5	-0.59
Sam Mitchell	22	23	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	2	0	13.9	15.3	-1.41	15.7	15.3	0.43
Dean Garrett	26	26	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	7	-10	15.5	14.8	0.71	12.7	16.4	-3.74
Rasho Nesterovic	16	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	7	-10	15.0	14.9	0.06	15.5	15.3	0.12
Anthony Peeler	33	33	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.05	-12	16	-28	15.7	14.5	1.15	13.7	16.3	-2.61

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	37	36	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.06	6	-10	16	14.7	15.8	-1.13	15.3	14.7	0.62
Walter McCarty	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-5	6	2.0	15.5	-13.51	8.0	15.0	-7.02
Chris Herren	17	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-4	4	14.2	15.6	-1.38	14.8	15.0	-0.14
Vitaly Potapenko	23	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-5	6	16.0	15.2	0.78	14.1	15.2	-1.14
Doug Overton	29	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-5	6	14.6	15.7	-1.13	13.8	15.4	-1.61
Randy Brown	49	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.16	-5	1	-6	16.2	14.5	1.77	15.7	14.2	1.45
Bryant Stith	76	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	0	-4	15.7	14.0	1.71	14.9	15.1	-0.13
Tony Battie	79	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	2	-8	15.5	14.8	0.67	15.2	13.9	1.29
Antoine Walker	88	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	15.1	18.6	-3.46	15.0	14.6	0.41
Paul Pierce	76	77	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	7	-18	15.5	14.7	0.86	14.9	15.2	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.18,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.08,0	93.6%
MIN 94, LAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.15,0	93.1%
ORL 97, PHX 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.33,0.08,0	93.1%