NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	3.9 [1066]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +11.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	92		Comeback	1.0 [627]		LVP	Derek Anderson (POR): -16.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.03	-0.05	12	67%	0.14	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.10	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	15	74%	0.16	4	-0.06	8	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	15	62%	0.11	4	-0.08	10	90%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	7	67%	0.07	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	14	75%	0.13	2	-0.02	8	37%	-0.05
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	16	68%	0.14	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ha Seung-Jin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.20	-0.02	-0.05	8	11%	-0.11	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	27.0	15.6	25.2	1.8	34.0	131.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.8%

MIA +6.0%

MIA +10.3%

POR -9.7%

MIA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	16.6	14.8	15.5	112.0	100.0	104.0
season	15.7	15.8		107.9	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	18.1	18.1	16.0	16.6
POR	14.3	14.0	17.1	13.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	66	67	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.10	24	-13	37	15.2	20.0	-4.75	15.6	12.4	3.23
Eddie Jones	81	82	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	-1	13	16.7	15.2	1.56	15.0	12.6	2.41
Dwyane Wade	80	79	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.10	13	-2	15	16.9	14.3	2.55	15.1	12.8	2.22
Damon Jones	72	74	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.02	15	-4	19	15.2	21.5	-6.32	14.7	15.1	-0.45
Shaquille O'Neal	68	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	3	5	16.0	18.0	-2.01	14.2	16.2	-1.92
Michael Doleac	24	24	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	8	-5	18.0	16.0	2.01	16.2	14.2	1.92
Keyon Dooling	36	34	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	11	-11	18.6	15.3	3.29	14.6	14.9	-0.30
Rasual Butler	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	18	-25	14.4	16.7	-2.30	10.0	15.1	-5.14
Christian Laettner	26	25	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.28	-13	24	-37	20.0	15.2	4.75	12.4	15.6	-3.23

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ha Seung-Jin	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	6.5	14.9	-8.43	19.0	16.5	2.50
Sebastian Telfair	31	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-13	15	14.5	14.9	-0.40	17.3	16.2	1.05
Joel Przybilla	29	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-11	11	14.8	14.7	0.01	17.0	16.4	0.63
Travis Outlaw	27	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-12	13	15.3	14.5	0.72	17.9	16.0	1.88
Zach Randolph	59	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-14	17	14.5	15.2	-0.77	17.5	14.7	2.77
Richie Frahm	13	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-5	-1	16.0	14.5	1.46	16.6	16.5	0.03
Damon Stoudamire	42	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-9	7	13.8	15.5	-1.73	16.0	17.0	-1.02
Derek Anderson	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	2	-15	14.7	14.9	-0.19	15.8	17.7	-1.87
Nick Van Exel	61	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.02	-13	2	-15	14.9	14.5	0.40	16.2	17.3	-1.05
Theo Ratliff	60	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	0	-11	15.2	13.8	1.44	16.2	17.4	-1.21
Ruben Patterson	81	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	5	-21	15.0	13.3	1.68	16.3	18.2	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 121, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
HOU 135, SAC 128	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
POR 94, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%