NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	6.7 [497]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +26.6%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	5.8 [107]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -12.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.27	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27	0.12	0.19	0.04	25	62%	0.31	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.01	9	55%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	10	55%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	21	43%	-0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	14	52%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	10	68%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	12	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.02	12	58%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	9	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.5	27.2	15.8	24.9	0.2	32.9	133.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +21.5%

DAL +6.8%

DAL +31.7%

DEN -11.9%

DAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	17.2	15.5	117.2	101.1	104.0
season	14.9	14.8		108.2	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.1	17.1	14.0	18.5	15.9
DEN	20.2	15.6	17.3	15.8	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Henderson	58	60	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.08	21	-7	28	15.8	16.0	-0.12	16.7	18.3	-1.56
Dirk Nowitzki	80	80	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.07	21	-7	28	15.6	19.0	-3.39	17.3	16.7	0.55
Michael Finley	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.04	19	-5	24	16.4	13.2	3.18	17.7	14.4	3.33
Jason Terry	48	50	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	6	2	16.6	15.1	1.51	17.1	17.4	-0.37
Devin Harris	13	12	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	9	-4	13.0	16.4	-3.39	13.7	17.8	-4.02
Erick Dampier	45	47	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.12	-2	16	-18	15.8	15.9	-0.08	18.4	15.8	2.63
Shawn Bradley	26	23	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	11	-8	14.5	16.5	-2.03	18.0	17.0	1.00
Josh Howard	51	50	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	19	-24	17.2	14.1	3.07	16.6	18.1	-1.55
Marquis Daniels	41	39	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.09	0	14	-14	15.0	16.6	-1.58	17.2	17.3	-0.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	36	36	0.36	-0.86	1.21	-0.08	15	-29	44	17.2	17.3	-0.09	16.4	15.5	0.91
DerMarr Johnson	31	31	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-17	20	18.3	16.6	1.62	14.8	16.5	-1.68
Greg Buckner	69	68	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-17	20	16.8	19.0	-2.25	16.6	13.5	3.09
Bryon Russell	9	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-4	-6	22.6	16.6	5.95	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Nene	56	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-4	-6	17.3	17.1	0.19	16.0	15.6	0.40
Francisco Elson	15	15	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-7	0	17.9	17.1	0.78	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Rodney White	32	33	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	0	-14	17.4	17.1	0.35	16.4	15.6	0.77
Earl Boykins	53	53	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	-2	-10	16.0	19.1	-3.07	16.8	14.4	2.37
Andre Miller	70	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	2	-18	17.3	16.7	0.64	15.2	18.7	-3.51
Marcus Camby	64	64	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.05	-22	8	-30	17.0	17.7	-0.71	15.2	17.8	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	93.5%
IND 109, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.72,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.6%
ATL 93, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	92.6%