NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	5.1 [782]		MVP	Tyrone Corbin (ATL): +21.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	79		Comeback	5.2 [145]		LVP	Danny Ferry (CLE): -9.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Corbin	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.06	-0.01	7	100%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	14	69%	0.21	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Jon Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	76%	0.11	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Ivano Newbill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donny Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	69%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.03	13	72%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	14	43%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Shawnelle Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	5	45%	0.02	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	44%	-0.05	1	-0.04	8	50%	-0.06
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	10	32%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	24.7	15.0	24.2	1.8	25.1	116.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +36.5%

ATL +15.1%

ATL +2.8%

CLE -5.2%

ATL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CLE	NBA	ATL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.8	20.4	15.6	120.8	101.3	104.4
season	16.4	17.8		105.3	102.1
opponent	16.1	16.0		100.0	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.4	17.0	16.6	16.9	16.8
CLE	20.4	17.2	21.3	23.1	20.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Corbin	68	68	0.78	-0.27	1.05	0.04	25	-11	36	16.0	22.3	-6.30	21.1	15.5	5.59
Mookie Blaylock	70	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-3	20	16.3	21.0	-4.66	20.8	16.1	4.65
Steven Smith	59	60	0.58	-0.07	0.65	0.20	13	1	12	17.6	14.2	3.39	21.2	17.7	3.52
Dikembe Mutombo	66	67	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	0	14	16.5	18.5	-1.97	21.1	15.9	5.20
Christian Laettner	67	68	0.46	0.05	0.41	0.17	10	4	6	17.1	14.6	2.49	20.4	20.5	-0.15
Jon Barry	9	8	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.15	7	7	0	11.6	17.5	-5.90	17.6	20.7	-3.06
Ivano Newbill	7	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	17	-20	21.0	16.3	4.66	16.1	20.8	-4.65
Henry James	23	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	18	-22	17.5	16.4	1.08	18.2	21.3	-3.12
Eldridge Recasner	16	18	-0.25	0.76	-1.02	0.01	-9	23	-32	18.6	16.3	2.35	16.3	21.6	-5.25

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawnelle Scott	1	1	0.00	-0.51	0.51	0.09	-3	-11	8	16.0	20.4	-4.43	0.0	17.0	-16.99
Chris Mills	68	68	-0.09	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-9	4	19.4	27.1	-7.72	17.0	15.3	1.62
Vitaly Potapenko	30	29	-0.17	-0.34	0.18	-0.14	-1	-13	12	20.9	20.0	0.86	17.4	16.4	1.04
Danny Ferry	40	39	-0.20	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-7	0	20.8	19.9	0.98	16.5	17.1	-0.57
Bob Sura	33	30	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.26	1	-15	16	19.4	21.1	-1.64	16.9	16.7	0.27
Bobby Phills	58	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	2	-18	20.9	18.8	2.05	16.9	16.2	0.71
Donny Marshall	45	45	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	-7	0	19.8	21.2	-1.46	16.5	17.2	-0.67
Terrell Brandon	70	70	-0.48	-0.03	-0.45	-0.04	-15	1	-16	20.5	19.0	1.53	16.8	16.4	0.37
Tyrone Hill	45	44	-0.54	0.03	-0.57	-0.04	-17	3	-20	21.6	18.7	2.85	16.6	17.0	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 100, OKC 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.19,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%
DAL 100, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	93.8%