NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	5.6 [731]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +16.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	88		Comeback	4.2 [131]		LVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): -10.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.01	0.10	-0.06	14	54%	0.18	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	4	100%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	7	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	10	62%	0.10	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	17	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Chris Duhon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	14	71%	0.21	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	67%	0.08	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	11	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.1	1.7	27.8	15.5	25.3	1.7	32.3	124.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +24.1%

MEM -2.6%

CHI +19.1%

CHI +11.4%

MEM -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MEM	NBA	CHI	MEM	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.5	106.7	98.9	104.0
season	15.1	16.4		100.1	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.9	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	14.4	17.5	17.7	16.1
MEM	15.4	15.6	16.8	16.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	24	24	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.32	13	-5	18	18.2	15.3	2.82	17.3	15.6	1.72
Tyson Chandler	60	59	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-3	14	15.9	16.6	-0.70	16.6	15.0	1.63
Andres Nocioni	43	43	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	1	6	16.3	15.9	0.34	17.3	15.0	2.32
Eric Piatkowski	34	33	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-10	28	14.9	16.8	-1.96	15.7	16.3	-0.65
Ben Gordon	48	48	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	5	-2	16.8	15.3	1.48	17.0	15.0	2.09
Kirk Hinrich	77	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	5	-2	16.3	14.8	1.56	15.8	17.9	-2.16
Othella Harrington	13	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	8	-8	12.1	16.8	-4.70	18.6	15.7	2.92
Luol Deng	47	46	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	7	-6	15.9	16.3	-0.34	15.0	17.3	-2.32
Antonio Davis	30	30	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	11	-14	16.6	15.9	0.70	15.0	16.6	-1.63
Chris Duhon	21	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	16	-24	15.7	16.2	-0.57	15.7	16.2	-0.54
Eddy Curry	53	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.06	-5	13	-18	16.2	16.0	0.12	15.0	17.7	-2.74

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	67	68	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-11	14	15.7	17.2	-1.53	15.5	18.0	-2.51
Earl Watson	48	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-3	-2	15.8	16.4	-0.53	16.1	16.1	0.06
James Posey	78	78	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-10	12	15.9	17.2	-1.26	16.4	13.9	2.52
Ryan Humphrey	5	4	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-3	-2	17.0	16.0	0.98	22.7	15.8	6.96
Mike Miller	64	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	15.4	17.7	-2.28	16.1	16.2	-0.14
Pau Gasol	72	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-5	2	15.6	18.3	-2.74	16.4	14.9	1.43
Jason Williams	41	44	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-5	2	16.4	15.8	0.53	16.1	16.1	-0.06
Stromile Swift	34	35	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	3	-14	17.8	15.0	2.78	16.0	16.2	-0.21
Bonzi Wells	36	37	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	3	-14	17.6	15.1	2.48	15.5	16.5	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.7%
MIL 107, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.3%
POR 94, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0	92.8%