NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	4.4 [965]		MVP	Devin Brown (SAS): +6.9%
Dallas Mavericks	89		Comeback	1.0 [659]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -9.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	9	67%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	73%	0.07	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	15	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	16	47%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	5	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	49%	-0.04	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	17	52%	0.00	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	28.3	16.3	28.4	1.7	32.2	131.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +19.4%

SAS +8.6%

DAL -2.8%

SAS +21.0%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.3	15.5	111.5	91.8	104.0
season	16.3	14.9		105.8	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.4	16.5	16.1	16.4	15.6
DAL	15.4	13.0	15.2	13.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	63	62	0.74	-0.24	0.97	-0.06	27	-9	36	13.9	18.7	-4.76	14.1	14.5	-0.41
Tim Duncan	70	71	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.03	20	-2	22	15.5	15.9	-0.43	15.0	12.2	2.85
Beno Udrih	39	41	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	1	16	15.9	15.4	0.50	13.1	15.2	-2.09
Manu Ginobili	54	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.24	21	-3	24	14.1	17.5	-3.38	14.3	14.2	0.12
Brent Barry	39	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	10	-2	15.1	15.9	-0.84	14.1	14.4	-0.23
Bruce Bowen	55	53	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	15	-12	16.3	14.6	1.72	15.4	13.0	2.42
Devin Brown	39	40	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	14	-10	16.3	15.1	1.24	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Tony Parker	57	56	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	17	-16	15.4	15.9	-0.50	15.2	13.1	2.09
Mike Wilks	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	21.6	15.2	6.36	10.8	14.5	-3.67
Robert Horry	38	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	22	-26	16.6	14.9	1.75	12.7	15.3	-2.58
Malik Rose	21	23	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.01	-7	25	-32	19.0	14.6	4.33	14.9	14.1	0.83

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DJ Mbenga	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-15	12	10.5	14.4	-3.86	30.5	15.3	15.24
Dan Dickau	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	10.8	14.5	-3.67	21.6	15.2	6.36
Devin Harris	33	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	-12	6	12.8	15.0	-2.17	17.1	14.7	2.39
Alan Henderson	18	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.10	-7	-11	4	13.8	14.4	-0.55	12.2	16.3	-4.12
Calvin Booth	16	16	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-14	10	12.8	14.6	-1.76	17.8	15.1	2.69
Marquis Daniels	63	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-15	12	14.4	14.0	0.38	15.6	15.6	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	71	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-9	0	14.1	14.8	-0.72	15.7	15.2	0.57
Dirk Nowitzki	82	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-6	-6	14.8	11.3	3.56	15.2	18.2	-3.07
Jason Terry	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	-5	-8	14.6	13.9	0.75	14.8	16.6	-1.82
Erick Dampier	56	53	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	-3	-12	14.5	13.9	0.61	15.5	15.7	-0.27
Josh Howard	84	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	-2	-14	14.7	11.6	3.08	15.4	16.8	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.28,0.34,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 91, POR 80	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.0%
CHH 106, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
POR 102, WAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.08,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%