NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	99		Excitement	5.3 [802]		MVP	Derek Anderson (POR): +11.2%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.6 [204]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -19.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	12	73%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.03	9	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	8	67%	0.02	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	9	68%	0.06	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	12	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	21	51%	0.01	3	-0.09	5	40%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.02	9	85%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	13	54%	-0.04
Wang Zhi-zhi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	10	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	13	51%	-0.05	3	-0.13	11	82%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.19	-0.03	-0.03	17	22%	-0.16	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.0	29.8	16.5	26.2	1.8	37.4	140.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +39.5%

MIA -3.1%

POR +10.8%

POR +2.3%

POR +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.5	112.5	101.2	104.0
season	15.8	15.7		101.2	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.5	17.2	18.8	15.9	17.1
MIA	14.8	17.1	15.3	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	54	53	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.04	19	-7	26	16.0	18.8	-2.81	16.3	15.4	0.92
Derek Anderson	68	68	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	2	8	16.9	17.6	-0.71	15.6	17.6	-1.98
Darius Miles	41	41	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	1	10	15.1	18.8	-3.66	16.2	15.8	0.44
Ruben Patterson	31	32	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.09	15	-3	18	15.7	17.9	-2.20	18.0	14.8	3.20
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	66	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	6	0	17.9	14.7	3.17	17.1	13.0	4.02
Theo Ratliff	54	55	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.44	-6	18	-24	18.7	14.6	4.14	15.9	16.2	-0.27
Zach Randolph	72	70	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	9	-6	17.5	15.4	2.03	14.7	21.8	-7.16
Joel Przybilla	15	12	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.12	10	2	8	14.1	17.7	-3.66	18.9	15.5	3.40
Damon Stoudamire	57	55	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.37	-9	21	-30	18.6	14.3	4.39	15.6	16.7	-1.18

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-7	2	7.0	16.3	-9.31	9.3	17.4	-8.04
Keyon Dooling	8	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-14	16	12.1	16.4	-4.26	17.0	17.1	-0.11
Wesley Person	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-9	6	18.6	15.8	2.81	16.6	17.1	-0.58
Rasual Butler	15	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	-5	-2	16.4	15.9	0.50	17.8	16.9	0.89
Udonis Haslem	66	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-13	14	14.8	20.0	-5.23	17.6	15.4	2.26
Michael Doleac	19	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-5	-2	14.5	16.4	-1.88	17.5	17.0	0.47
Eddie Jones	65	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-13	14	15.9	16.4	-0.52	17.3	16.6	0.68
Shandon Anderson	53	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	15.9	16.2	-0.26	16.5	17.9	-1.38
Shaquille O'Neal	67	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-7	2	16.4	14.5	1.88	17.0	17.5	-0.47
Christian Laettner	19	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-3	-6	20.8	14.6	6.16	16.1	17.4	-1.30
Dwyane Wade	72	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-9	6	15.6	18.1	-2.57	17.8	13.6	4.20
Damon Jones	39	40	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.14	-22	10	-32	17.0	15.1	1.85	15.7	18.2	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	94.7%
PHI 88, POR 60	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
DAL 94, NJN 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.16,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%