NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	83		Excitement	8.6 [138]		MVP	Carlos Arroyo (UTA): +22.3%
Utah Jazz	85		Comeback	2.0 [735]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -65.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.01	9	50%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	87%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	10	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.05	0.00	7	41%	0.05	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Michael Doleac	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.27	-0.00	-0.26	0.00	20	57%	-0.02	4	-0.25	4	75%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.66	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.3,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.31,-0.34,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41,-0.44,-0.43,-0.43,-0.66	-0.34	-0.34	-0.02	15	19%	-0.23	7	-0.43	6	83%	0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.22	0.22	-0.03	0.25	0.00	18	53%	0.34	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	3	83%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	10	44%	0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Raul Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.07	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	15	41%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	12	45%	-0.13	3	-0.07	5	40%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.6	32.1	15.4	24.2	1.8	35.1	134.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +23.9%

DEN -4.3%

DEN -19.8%

UTA +48.2%

UTA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.4	17.7	15.7	93.3	100.0	100.5
season	14.9	17.2		101.6	99.4
opponent	15.2	15.4		100.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	19.0	12.5	16.0	15.0	15.4
UTA	17.9	17.0	18.2	17.9	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	21	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-1	0	17.7	14.7	2.98	17.6	17.7	-0.09
Carmelo Anthony	57	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.47	12	-14	26	15.3	15.7	-0.39	17.8	17.6	0.18
Chris Andersen	35	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-1	0	13.7	16.6	-2.89	15.4	19.0	-3.53
Nene	49	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.34	3	-5	8	15.6	15.2	0.43	19.3	15.5	3.84
Rodney White	40	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	6	-14	14.7	16.1	-1.39	16.8	18.4	-1.61
Jon Barry	45	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.25	-2	0	-2	17.0	13.8	3.25	18.0	17.4	0.57
Earl Boykins	50	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	4	-10	14.0	17.3	-3.24	16.8	18.8	-1.99
Andre Miller	75	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.36	-2	0	-2	15.9	12.8	3.15	18.5	12.7	5.78
Marcus Camby	73	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.40	-5	3	-8	15.5	15.2	0.31	17.6	18.3	-0.75

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordan Giricek	58	60	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-9	20	18.4	16.2	2.19	16.4	13.5	2.85
Sasha Pavlovic	16	18	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.52	4	-2	6	16.4	18.0	-1.58	14.2	15.7	-1.52
Carlos Arroyo	66	69	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	-2	6	18.2	16.1	2.08	16.1	13.1	2.95
Raja Bell	39	42	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	-1	4	15.9	19.3	-3.36	14.8	16.0	-1.24
Andrei Kirilenko	63	63	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	5	-8	18.7	14.8	3.91	16.1	13.8	2.25
Greg Ostertag	67	70	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.07	6	-4	10	16.9	20.9	-4.02	15.2	16.4	-1.18
Mikki Moore	38	43	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	1	0	16.5	18.7	-2.20	14.4	16.4	-2.06
Mo Williams	18	19	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	1	0	16.5	18.0	-1.54	12.6	16.2	-3.64
Raul Lopez	19	20	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	4	-6	16.1	18.2	-2.08	13.1	16.1	-2.95
Jarron Collins	18	18	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	8	-14	20.9	16.9	4.02	17.2	15.0	2.24
Tom Gugliotta	23	23	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.07	-9	11	-20	20.1	16.8	3.31	17.1	14.9	2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.77,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 125, TOR 127	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.84,0.42,1	91.5%
UTA 87, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.58,1	91.4%
DEN 103, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.81,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	91.2%