NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Excitement	4.3 [940]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): +9.9%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	1.1 [1074]		LVP	Michael Olowokandi (MIN): -10.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	56%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	15	68%	0.13	4	-0.10	11	91%	0.03
Troy Hudson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	15	62%	0.06	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	4	10%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	65%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	13	45%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	13	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	15	49%	-0.04	1	-0.03	15	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.4	31.5	19.7	30.1	3.5	42.2	155.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.9%

MIN -0.1%

SAS +5.3%

SAS +22.2%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	17.2	15.7	94.5	117.8	100.5
season	15.6	15.9		103.2	100.1
opponent	15.8	16.1		92.7	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.1	15.3	17.1	11.6	14.6
SAS	14.9	19.0	18.0	17.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Trent	7	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-16	12	12.0	14.9	-2.87	18.5	17.1	1.40
Oliver Miller	7	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.03	-2	-18	16	9.1	15.1	-5.96	19.0	17.1	1.94
Mark Madsen	13	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-19	18	17.2	14.2	3.01	21.5	16.4	5.11
Ervin Johnson	18	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-18	16	15.1	14.5	0.58	17.7	17.1	0.60
Fred Hoiberg	34	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.16	-11	-9	-2	13.3	15.4	-2.12	17.4	17.1	0.39
Troy Hudson	33	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-13	6	13.8	15.1	-1.30	18.6	16.4	2.13
Michael Olowokandi	32	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	-10	0	16.4	13.7	2.66	15.0	18.3	-3.34
Wally Szczerbiak	50	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-7	-6	13.5	16.1	-2.64	17.9	16.4	1.47
Trenton Hassell	60	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-6	-8	15.1	13.8	1.23	16.7	18.0	-1.31
Latrell Sprewell	64	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-10	0	14.9	14.0	0.87	16.7	18.5	-1.73
Sam Cassell	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	-6	-8	15.0	12.7	2.37	16.5	21.0	-4.51
Kevin Garnett	73	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	-7	-6	14.9	13.6	1.36	17.1	17.6	-0.49

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	70	68	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.07	22	-2	24	16.9	18.1	-1.17	15.2	13.0	2.26
Bruce Bowen	54	59	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	5	10	15.9	19.2	-3.34	15.2	13.6	1.58
Rasho Nesterovic	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	10	0	17.5	16.6	0.93	15.3	13.4	1.96
Tim Duncan	50	50	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	4	12	16.4	18.2	-1.77	15.2	14.0	1.18
Tony Parker	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	6	8	16.6	19.4	-2.76	15.4	11.8	3.61
Manu Ginobili	53	53	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.08	12	8	4	18.1	15.8	2.29	13.8	15.8	-1.91
Robert Horry	26	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	15	-10	19.1	16.4	2.71	14.8	14.6	0.22
Devin Brown	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.19	7	13	-6	18.1	16.8	1.38	12.5	15.6	-3.10
Charlie Ward	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	19.6	17.0	2.55	8.2	15.0	-6.82
Jason Hart	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	19.6	17.0	2.55	8.2	15.0	-6.82
Kevin Willis	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	20	-20	19.6	17.0	2.55	8.2	15.0	-6.82
Malik Rose	23	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	21	-22	16.7	17.3	-0.60	14.7	14.6	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.82,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 79, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DAL 103, POR 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	95.4%
POR 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%