NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	122		Excitement	6.4 [529]		MVP	Kareem Rush (LAL): +13.9%
Washington Wizards	110		Comeback	1.3 [437]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -13.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kareem Rush	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.06	0.04	9	78%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.01	16	62%	0.16	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Derek Fisher	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.00	10	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.02	0.07	17	74%	0.15	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Luke Walton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.05	0.02	4	90%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Brian Cook	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.02	0.05	23	69%	0.17	4	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	17	51%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.08	3	100%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	58%	0.05	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.05
Kwame Brown	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	60%	-0.02	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.05
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	15	33%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	31.2	17.2	24.4	0.2	28.6	129.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +67.1%

WAS -11.9%

WAS -18.4%

LAL +11.1%

LAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	WAS	NBA	LAL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.4	15.7	125.8	114.6	100.5
season	15.4	15.2		102.8	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.6		102.4	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.7	12.6	13.8	15.8	14.5
WAS	14.3	16.9	16.2	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	66	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-6	24	14.2	15.1	-0.88	16.2	13.5	2.71
Gary Payton	68	66	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-1	14	14.0	15.4	-1.40	16.6	12.8	3.76
Luke Walton	27	25	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	0	12	13.0	15.0	-1.98	16.1	15.1	0.99
Kareem Rush	38	38	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-1	14	15.4	13.8	1.57	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Kobe Bryant	77	77	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	1	10	14.2	15.4	-1.24	15.6	14.6	0.94
Bryon Russell	12	11	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	8	-4	9.7	15.1	-5.47	17.9	15.1	2.85
Brian Cook	25	25	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	9	-6	15.7	14.0	1.69	14.7	15.6	-0.95
Derek Fisher	31	30	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.16	-4	16	-20	15.5	14.0	1.59	13.4	16.3	-2.94
Rick Fox	42	42	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	11	-10	14.8	14.2	0.57	15.6	15.2	0.42
Devean George	24	25	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	11	-10	15.1	14.3	0.82	13.5	16.1	-2.58
Slava Medvedenko	47	47	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	17	-22	14.9	14.0	0.87	15.6	15.2	0.37
Horace Grant	28	26	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	19	-26	14.9	14.3	0.60	13.5	16.1	-2.53

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	27	30	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-14	16	15.1	15.5	-0.43	15.0	14.2	0.73
Steve Blake	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.15	2	-14	16	17.6	15.1	2.54	14.9	14.4	0.50
Juan Dixon	47	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-10	8	17.1	13.8	3.29	14.2	14.7	-0.55
Brendan Haywood	44	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-8	4	16.6	14.4	2.23	13.3	15.4	-2.00
Brevin Knight	14	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-5	-2	16.7	15.2	1.56	13.4	14.6	-1.21
Jarvis Hayes	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	13.9	17.2	-3.35	14.8	14.1	0.72
Jerry Stackhouse	75	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	1	-14	15.2	15.9	-0.66	14.6	13.9	0.78
Jared Jeffries	31	31	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	14.4	15.8	-1.43	15.2	14.1	1.12
Gilbert Arenas	88	90	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-3	-6	15.0	19.4	-4.35	14.5	14.0	0.50
Kwame Brown	90	91	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	-2	-8	15.2	17.8	-2.61	14.4	14.8	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.24,0.29,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.31,0.23,0.28,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.12,0.06,0.14,0.02,0.02,0.03,0	93.5%
CHH 120, NJN 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.2%
WAS 104, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0	93.1%