NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	8.5 [143]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): +19.6%
Toronto Raptors	82		Comeback	8.7 [73]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): -26.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.2,0.2	-0.05	0.24	-0.01	6	36%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Ward	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	6	86%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	68%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	80%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,-0.09,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	73%	0.12	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.03
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	42%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.17,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.21,-0.13	-0.15	0.02	0.01	22	46%	-0.03	4	-0.10	13	46%	-0.09
Tony Parker	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	5	0%	-0.13	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.16	-0.10	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.09,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	0.10	-0.04	16	56%	0.22	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Archibald	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.06	-0.03	9	29%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	20	48%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	17	51%	-0.03	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	23.9	15.8	24.2	2.3	40.6	135.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.7%

SAS +11.1%

SAS +45.5%

TOR -18.7%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	17.0	15.7	98.9	92.1	100.5
season	15.9	16.8		100.1	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.4	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.9	12.6	17.5	15.2	15.7
TOR	14.8	17.4	18.5	17.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	36	38	1.04	-0.54	1.58	0.39	22	-18	40	13.4	17.3	-3.90	16.9	17.1	-0.11
Manu Ginobili	47	51	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.39	13	-9	22	15.3	16.2	-0.92	16.5	17.7	-1.22
Charlie Ward	44	46	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-8	20	13.5	18.0	-4.45	17.4	16.6	0.79
Hedo Turkoglu	47	49	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-1	6	16.3	15.0	1.30	17.6	16.3	1.25
Tim Duncan	75	77	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	0	4	15.1	19.2	-4.12	17.4	14.5	2.90
Devin Brown	13	11	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	-1	6	13.6	16.1	-2.45	16.2	17.1	-0.95
Kevin Willis	7	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	6	-8	17.0	15.6	1.41	16.4	17.1	-0.63
Ron Mercer	14	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	8	-12	13.1	16.2	-3.05	16.6	17.1	-0.49
Rasho Nesterovic	32	31	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.07	-9	13	-22	17.2	14.8	2.40	17.8	16.6	1.27
Tony Parker	43	43	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	12	-20	18.0	13.5	4.45	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Robert Horry	24	24	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.10	-7	11	-18	18.5	14.6	3.87	15.5	17.6	-2.13
Bruce Bowen	53	53	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.07	-11	15	-26	16.7	14.1	2.65	17.1	16.9	0.11

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	54	56	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.01	7	-11	18	17.1	16.8	0.30	15.4	16.2	-0.71
Chris Bosh	19	19	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.09	9	-13	22	15.3	17.5	-2.22	18.1	15.0	3.01
Lonny Baxter	9	8	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-7	10	20.8	16.6	4.19	19.9	15.3	4.60
Robert Archibald	27	28	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-5	6	17.1	17.0	0.20	15.4	15.8	-0.45
Lamond Murray	16	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	6	-16	18.2	16.7	1.51	11.5	16.7	-5.26
Alvin Williams	79	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.52	4	-8	12	16.7	19.8	-3.14	16.2	12.6	3.62
Morris Peterson	83	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-2	0	16.8	19.5	-2.67	16.2	9.3	6.84
Donyell Marshall	73	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.44	-5	1	-6	17.0	17.2	-0.29	15.7	15.7	-0.06
Milt Palacio	43	40	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.29	-13	9	-22	17.3	16.7	0.65	15.0	16.3	-1.21
Michael Curry	42	40	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.29	-14	10	-24	17.0	17.0	0.07	14.9	16.4	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.72,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.55,0.36,0.25,0.09,0	92.3%
LAL 100, UTA 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.85,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.73,0.39,0.28,0.45,0.28,0	91.5%
MIN 95, SAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.46,0.55,0.08,0	91.5%