NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	7.8 [293]		MVP	Randy Foye (MIN): +29.3%
Sacramento Kings	89		Comeback	5.5 [141]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -17.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29	0.17	0.13	0.00	12	80%	0.39	1	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Craig Smith	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.27,0.29	0.03	0.26	0.00	5	53%	0.29	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.09,-0.09,0.15,0.1	-0.06	0.16	-0.00	14	44%	0.20	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04
Mike James	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.02	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marko Jaric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	18	44%	-0.02	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.12	-0.01	19	53%	0.23	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.01	12	73%	0.23	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	5	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	6	23%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	13	57%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Justin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	12	46%	-0.05	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	28.1	15.5	25.4	2.5	37.2	133.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +48.2%

MIN +3.9%

MIN +9.0%

SAC -7.3%

SAC -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.6	15.5	15.4	102.2	96.7	104.5
season	15.4	14.7		101.9	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	16.9	15.3	15.0	15.6
SAC	16.5	15.1	15.3	15.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	43	42	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.32	15	-9	24	15.1	16.1	-1.03	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Randy Foye	52	50	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.32	12	-6	18	15.6	15.7	-0.02	14.6	16.5	-1.95
Ricky Davis	69	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.41	8	-2	10	15.4	16.2	-0.82	15.1	16.8	-1.72
Craig Smith	45	45	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.37	9	-3	12	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.3	16.7	-2.39
Kevin Garnett	85	83	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	4	-2	15.9	13.0	2.89	15.5	15.4	0.05
Mark Blount	56	56	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	5	-4	15.6	15.8	-0.23	16.5	14.0	2.49
Rashad McCants	21	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	7	-8	16.4	15.4	1.01	17.5	14.9	2.57
Mike James	41	42	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.00	-6	12	-18	15.7	15.6	0.02	16.5	14.6	1.95
Trenton Hassell	53	53	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.01	-10	16	-26	16.1	15.1	0.96	15.6	15.4	0.23

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	45	43	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.14	4	-10	14	15.7	15.3	0.39	15.1	16.1	-0.98
Justin Williams	20	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.13	-2	-4	2	14.4	15.8	-1.39	15.5	15.7	-0.12
Ronnie Price	4	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-3	0	13.5	15.6	-2.08	8.8	16.0	-7.23
Francisco Garcia	26	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.10	-4	-2	-2	15.8	15.4	0.39	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Corliss Williamson	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-6	6	15.5	15.4	0.11	16.3	13.7	2.57
Mike Bibby	74	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.44	-1	-5	4	15.1	17.2	-2.09	16.0	13.9	2.16
Metta World Peace	83	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	-1	-4	15.7	13.2	2.51	15.8	14.8	0.94
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	81	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	1	-8	16.0	11.8	4.17	15.7	15.5	0.22
Kevin Martin	57	59	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.43	-12	6	-18	15.2	16.0	-0.87	15.5	15.9	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.46,0.55,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 104, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.16,0	92.6%
CHI 101, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	91.9%
MIA 101, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	91.6%