NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	6.2 [559]		MVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA): +7.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	90		Comeback	1.1 [533]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): -12.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	78%	0.13	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	15	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	6	33%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Charlie Ward	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	19	53%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	6	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	20	50%	0.11	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	9	56%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	30%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.09	0.03	19	52%	-0.10	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.6	32.1	17.7	30.2	2.7	35.7	145.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.4%

SEA -6.8%

SAS +9.0%

SAS +9.2%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.3	15.3	15.7	105.5	98.9	100.5
season	15.9	15.6		100.1	105.0
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.9	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	14.8	18.5	16.8	16.3
SEA	15.2	15.2	14.2	16.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	66	65	0.66	-0.15	0.81	0.22	15	-9	24	16.1	17.0	-0.85	15.3	15.2	0.11
Tim Duncan	81	81	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.23	14	-8	22	16.2	17.1	-0.85	15.3	15.0	0.35
Tony Parker	63	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	-2	10	16.9	15.1	1.73	16.2	13.4	2.82
Robert Horry	49	49	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.33	-4	10	-14	15.3	17.6	-2.29	14.9	15.8	-0.84
Manu Ginobili	49	50	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	8	-10	15.4	17.5	-2.11	15.6	15.0	0.56
Malik Rose	10	11	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	-1	8	17.2	16.2	0.97	16.9	15.1	1.82
Hedo Turkoglu	57	57	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	7	-8	17.3	14.8	2.47	15.1	15.7	-0.64
Charlie Ward	28	28	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	8	-10	15.1	16.9	-1.73	13.4	16.2	-2.82
Devin Brown	20	18	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	7	-8	18.9	15.6	3.34	15.7	15.2	0.45
Rasho Nesterovic	32	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	10	-14	16.6	16.2	0.44	15.0	15.5	-0.44

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	20	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-5	4	13.5	15.8	-2.25	14.2	16.9	-2.71
Richie Frahm	14	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-7	8	14.7	15.4	-0.70	16.4	16.3	0.12
Reggie Evans	9	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-3	0	16.1	15.2	0.89	17.2	16.2	0.98
Luke Ridnour	31	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-5	4	14.4	15.8	-1.45	15.7	16.7	-0.96
Vladimir Radmanovic	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.29	4	-10	14	15.2	15.4	-0.22	16.5	16.2	0.33
Calvin Booth	17	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	4	-14	15.1	15.4	-0.23	15.6	16.5	-0.93
Jerome James	30	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-5	4	14.8	15.6	-0.81	17.8	15.6	2.17
Vitaly Potapenko	61	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-1	-4	15.6	14.8	0.81	15.8	17.3	-1.50
Rashard Lewis	81	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-6	6	15.3	15.4	-0.10	16.3	16.9	-0.63
Antonio Daniels	64	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-1	-4	16.0	13.6	2.44	16.6	15.7	0.96
Ray Allen	76	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	3	-12	15.7	13.4	2.28	16.7	14.3	2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.28,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.25,0.08,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	94.2%
LAL 93, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.02,0,0	93.8%
SAS 94, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0	93.6%