NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	7.0 [403]		MVP	P.J. Brown (NOH): +16.8%
New Orleans Hornets	97		Comeback	1.6 [890]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -18.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.02	-0.05	12	68%	0.19	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	8	37%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.01	-0.15	0.01	11	50%	-0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.26,-0.26,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	22	44%	-0.05	4	-0.14	10	80%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.01	12	55%	0.17	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	5	56%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.07
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	71%	0.14	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	59%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.10	0.01	12	75%	0.15	3	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	10	46%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	28.2	15.8	26.4	2.4	37.3	136.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +51.3%

NOH +14.3%

DEN -0.9%

DEN -16.4%

NOH +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	15.1	15.2	15.7	94.8	103.2	100.5
season	14.9	16.0		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	15.5	17.5	14.5	15.1
NOH	12.6	14.5	16.8	17.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	37	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-6	6	15.0	15.2	-0.19	16.9	14.2	2.73
Chris Andersen	23	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-6	6	14.3	15.4	-1.07	17.1	14.6	2.50
Nene	64	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-10	14	15.1	15.2	-0.06	14.7	16.2	-1.48
Francisco Elson	23	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-2	-2	14.4	15.3	-0.95	17.2	14.5	2.75
Voshon Lenard	76	75	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-6	6	15.2	14.9	0.21	14.9	16.6	-1.73
Rodney White	33	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	6	-18	14.8	15.3	-0.45	14.8	15.4	-0.59
Marcus Camby	73	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	0	-6	15.4	14.3	1.07	14.6	17.1	-2.50
Andre Miller	70	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	15.2	14.8	0.47	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Carmelo Anthony	81	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	2	-10	15.4	13.8	1.56	15.0	16.1	-1.11

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	78	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-6	18	15.3	14.8	0.47	14.8	16.7	-1.89
Darrell Armstrong	79	82	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	1	4	14.9	16.8	-1.90	15.5	12.6	2.98
Jamaal Magloire	70	71	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	3	0	15.0	15.9	-0.96	15.5	13.9	1.67
P.J. Brown	55	56	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.32	0	6	-6	14.8	15.8	-1.06	16.2	13.6	2.55
George Lynch	63	62	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	1	4	14.6	16.5	-1.91	15.4	14.6	0.77
Stacey Augmon	45	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	7	-8	15.6	14.8	0.85	15.0	15.2	-0.27
Robert Traylor	39	39	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	0	6	15.8	14.8	1.06	13.9	15.9	-2.01
Sean Rooks	23	24	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	5	-4	16.6	14.7	1.86	14.4	15.3	-0.93
Bryce Drew	18	18	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	7	-8	16.4	14.9	1.54	12.4	15.7	-3.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.71,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.89,0.77,0.82,1	93.3%
SAC 86, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.67,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.81,0.72,0.8,0.73,1	93.1%
DET 84, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.69,0.84,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.67,0.74,1	93.0%