NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	7.9 [232]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): +23.2%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.0 [939]		LVP	Jud Buechler (DET): -20.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.06	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	9	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	74%	0.06	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.03
Dana Barros	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	6	44%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Billy Owens	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	6	25%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.16	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.08,-0.2,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	19	67%	0.19	11	-0.35	10	90%	0.07
Jud Buechler	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	7	0%	-0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.23	0.23	0.01	0.22	-0.00	11	45%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	9	60%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	61%	0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	10	30%	-0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.09	-0.01	12	54%	-0.03	1	-0.07	11	64%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	15	47%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.5	27.2	16.4	26.0	2.6	32.2	134.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -0.7%

MIA +1.6%

MIA +9.5%

MIA +37.1%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	18.2	15.5	96.6	101.2	100.9
season	14.3	16.3		97.9	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.4		96.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.2	16.0	15.5	14.8	15.2
MIA	17.7	16.0	18.0	21.2	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	22	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	0	-3	14.5	15.4	-0.88	19.5	17.7	1.75
Dana Barros	14	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	3	-9	17.7	14.7	3.04	15.9	18.5	-2.62
Mateen Cleaves	41	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.35	6	-9	15	14.3	15.9	-1.55	19.3	17.2	2.09
Michael Curry	31	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	2	-7	16.2	14.6	1.60	17.8	18.4	-0.59
Jud Buechler	35	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	0	-3	15.0	15.2	-0.22	16.4	19.3	-2.88
Billy Owens	42	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-3	3	14.0	16.2	-2.24	18.1	18.2	-0.14
Chucky Atkins	46	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	6	-15	15.9	14.3	1.55	17.2	19.3	-2.09
Jerry Stackhouse	75	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.42	3	-6	9	14.3	20.5	-6.19	18.4	16.5	1.92
Corliss Williamson	64	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.37	1	-4	5	15.5	14.3	1.22	18.2	18.0	0.26
Ben Wallace	65	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-4	5	15.8	13.2	2.65	18.9	15.8	3.16

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	64	65	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-10	23	17.2	20.8	-3.58	15.1	15.3	-0.15
Anthony Mason	73	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-4	11	18.5	16.5	1.99	15.5	13.6	1.81
Bruce Bowen	62	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.49	1	2	-1	19.3	15.1	4.20	15.1	15.2	-0.07
Brian Grant	70	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	18.0	18.6	-0.58	15.7	12.5	3.17
Tim Hardaway	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	3	-3	18.7	16.9	1.74	15.6	14.1	1.46
Anthony Carter	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-6	15	17.0	19.0	-1.97	15.7	14.8	0.94
A.C. Green	29	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.04	-2	5	-7	17.7	18.4	-0.75	13.1	16.2	-3.08
Cedric Ceballos	13	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	6	-9	20.8	17.7	3.17	13.7	15.4	-1.73
Eddie Jones	21	22	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	14	-25	16.3	18.7	-2.41	14.0	15.5	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.69,0.84,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.84,1	93.6%
DEN 91, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.72,1	93.0%
IND 100, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.78,0.84,1	93.0%