NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	4.5 [911]		MVP	Gordan Giricek (ORL): +10.1%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	1.1 [1133]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -12.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	13	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Erick Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	87%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Desmond Mason	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	15	56%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	52%	0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	9	59%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	38%	0.00	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	19	38%	-0.13	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.01	6	92%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	85%	0.11	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	6	64%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	11	55%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	16	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.04	25	54%	0.01	2	-0.05	13	85%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.4	22.7	16.7	29.5	1.8	38.2	132.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +37.6%

ORL +4.2%

ORL +4.4%

ORL +2.6%

ORL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.7	15.7	102.1	109.3	100.5
season	15.3	15.7		103.6	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		108.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	17.1	14.8	12.3	14.9
ORL	14.3	14.2	14.5	15.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.24	8	-15	23	7.0	16.3	-9.29	14.6	14.8	-0.17
T.J. Ford	63	62	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.38	11	-18	29	13.6	17.4	-3.84	15.0	14.3	0.62
Brian Skinner	59	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.18	4	-11	15	15.5	14.2	1.30	15.2	14.1	1.05
Tim Thomas	74	75	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.41	11	-18	29	14.5	16.3	-1.83	15.4	12.4	3.02
Joe Smith	62	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-5	3	16.4	12.5	3.90	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Damon Jones	11	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-1	-5	18.1	14.5	3.54	14.7	14.8	-0.09
Dan Gadzuric	11	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	0	-7	16.2	14.8	1.39	14.3	14.8	-0.53
Michael Redd	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	14.2	17.4	-3.12	14.3	16.2	-1.92
Desmond Mason	60	60	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.19	-14	7	-21	14.6	15.5	-0.96	14.5	15.1	-0.59
Toni Kukoc	33	32	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	0.07	-24	17	-41	17.6	13.6	4.03	14.2	15.0	-0.73

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	40	41	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	-11	29	15.0	14.6	0.40	16.2	14.0	2.20
Tracy McGrady	85	84	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	7	-7	14.8	14.4	0.37	14.8	16.0	-1.21
Gordan Giricek	35	34	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.07	9	-2	11	13.1	15.7	-2.55	13.8	15.6	-1.73
Keith Bogans	86	87	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	7	-7	14.8	13.9	0.94	14.5	18.6	-4.07
Rod Strickland	53	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	7	-7	14.6	15.0	-0.39	13.7	16.5	-2.80
Shammond Williams	15	16	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.04	9	-2	11	12.9	15.1	-2.22	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Juwan Howard	81	80	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.35	-5	12	-17	15.0	13.6	1.41	14.4	17.7	-3.34
Lee Nailon	13	14	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-1	9	13.9	14.9	-0.95	16.1	14.8	1.31
Drew Gooden	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	5	-3	16.0	14.3	1.75	18.1	13.9	4.22
Tyronn Lue	33	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	4	-1	14.4	14.9	-0.57	16.2	14.3	1.85
Andrew DeClercq	23	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	13	-19	14.5	14.8	-0.35	14.5	15.1	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 78, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
CHI 98, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
BOS 108, WAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.87,0.84,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,1	95.0%