NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	4.2 [962]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +15.8%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	1.0 [1229]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -9.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bimbo Coles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	21	51%	-0.01	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	9	55%	0.04	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	16	36%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	46%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.03	-0.03	17	77%	0.23	5	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	16	51%	0.06	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	9	71%	0.07	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	5	57%	0.01	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	29.2	15.7	29.0	1.8	30.0	133.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.8%

DEN +7.5%

MIA -0.9%

MIA -5.2%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.7	89.9	100.0	100.5
season	16.2	14.9		99.3	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.9		101.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.4	17.4	16.6	16.1	17.1
DEN	14.3	14.5	15.4	17.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bimbo Coles	6	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-9	10	21.0	16.8	4.16	16.3	15.3	0.95
Udonis Haslem	39	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-12	16	16.4	17.7	-1.32	14.6	16.0	-1.37
Rasual Butler	21	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-9	10	15.6	17.6	-2.03	16.1	15.2	0.91
Malik Allen	39	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	4	-16	18.5	16.1	2.43	14.5	16.1	-1.59
Eddie Jones	72	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-4	0	16.4	20.1	-3.70	15.4	15.3	0.10
Caron Butler	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-7	6	16.3	19.7	-3.46	15.7	14.5	1.15
Lamar Odom	77	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-4	0	17.4	15.5	1.88	15.6	13.7	1.94
Brian Grant	58	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	4	-16	18.2	15.2	2.96	15.8	14.7	1.08
Rafer Alston	66	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	5	-18	17.3	16.5	0.81	15.2	16.0	-0.87

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.19	14	-6	20	15.4	15.2	0.18	17.5	15.1	2.40
Voshon Lenard	75	76	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-6	20	15.5	15.0	0.48	17.9	12.3	5.64
Andre Miller	77	78	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	1	6	15.3	15.9	-0.57	16.8	19.3	-2.45
Carmelo Anthony	77	77	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	5	-2	15.3	15.9	-0.57	16.6	20.7	-4.19
Rodney White	29	29	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.19	3	5	-2	16.9	14.7	2.22	17.7	16.8	0.89
Marcus Camby	16	15	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.11	10	-2	12	15.5	15.4	0.11	19.4	16.7	2.74
Chris Andersen	32	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	9	-10	14.7	15.8	-1.18	17.6	16.8	0.79
Francisco Elson	28	29	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	7	-6	14.9	15.7	-0.81	16.7	17.3	-0.59
Earl Boykins	24	24	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	13	-18	15.4	15.4	0.01	15.5	17.7	-2.22
Mark Pope	6	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	14	-20	15.2	15.4	-0.26	10.5	17.6	-7.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 92, DEN 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.85,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1	96.2%
HOU 97, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.81,0.74,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	96.0%
DET 99, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1	95.8%